Premium baijiu wholesale prices retreat after peak season; Goldman Sachs expects narrower third-quarter revenue declines but continued divergence
Sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays fell short of expectations, and distribution channels continued to reduce inventories. Goldman Sachs expects baijiu industry sales to fall by an average of approximately 6% year on year in the third quarter, although declines at most producers will narrow from the second quarter.
Original source：Goldman SachsFirst published on Unhidea：Original source date：
Key takeaway
Premium baijiu wholesale prices weakened after the peak season, and producers are prioritizing the health of their distribution channels. Goldman Sachs expects year-on-year sales declines to narrow at most companies in the third quarter, but end-market demand and policy pressures remain.
How have premium baijiu wholesale prices moved after the peak season?
From 14 October to the 26th, wholesale prices for both original-case and loose-bottle Feitian Moutai fell by 10 yuan, to 1720 yuan and 1700 yuan per bottle, respectively. Two price sources put standard Wuliangye at 820 yuan and 770 yuan per bottle, respectively; the former fell by 10 yuan, while the latter was broadly flat. Guojiao 1573 fell by 10 yuan to 810 yuan.
Goldman Sachs says sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays were weaker than expected. Together with policy effects in places including Zhejiang, this left distributors cautious as channels continued to reduce inventories. The recent declines also look different in the context of the year to date: as of 26 October, wholesale prices for original-case and loose-bottle Feitian were up 215 yuan and 210 yuan, respectively, from the start of the year, while prices for standard Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 were below their levels at the start of the year.
How are baijiu producers’ third-quarter results expected to diverge?
Goldman Sachs expects baijiu industry sales to fall by an average of approximately 6% year on year in the third quarter of 2026. Against a backdrop of weak macroeconomic demand and continuing anti-corruption efforts, producers are placing greater emphasis on channel health than on short-term shipments.
The bank expects most companies’ third-quarter sales to fall 4%–33% year on year, narrowing from declines of 13%–66% in the second quarter. Kweichow Moutai and Jiangsu King’s Luck Brewery are exceptions: both are expected to grow 2% year on year in the third quarter, following a decline of 5% and growth of 14%, respectively, in the second quarter.
Why does price pressure persist even as declines narrow?
The improvement Goldman Sachs describes is a narrowing of year-on-year sales declines from the second quarter. At the same time, end-market demand remains weak, producers continue to control shipments to distribution channels, and industry sales are still expected to be below the same period last year.
The recent drop in wholesale prices also reflects ongoing inventory absorption by distribution channels. Beyond Feitian Moutai, over the past two weeks, wholesale prices for zodiac-themed Moutai, 15-year Moutai and 1-litre Feitian fell by 5 yuan, 30 yuan and 20 yuan per bottle, respectively, while premium Moutai was flat.
