Bernstein: eBay’s third-quarter transaction growth beats expectations: Core buyers support the platform as margins remain under pressure

Where was third-quarter growth strongest?

eBay’s third-quarter gross merchandise volume (GMV) was 23.166 billion dollars, up 15.2% year over year and 1.6% above Bernstein’s forecast. It grew 16% at constant currency, including organic growth of 13%.
Growth came mainly from the US: US GMV rose 27.1% year over year, while international markets grew 3.8%. International GMV was also 2.1% below Bernstein’s expectations.
Collectibles led growth, followed by parts and accessories, fashion, and refurbished goods. Consumer-to-consumer transactions rose 20% year over year and accounted for 72% of platform GMV.

The platform’s approximately 16 million loyal users contribute more than 70% of GMV, demonstrating how frequent, deeply engaged buyers support transactions. Active buyers reached 147 million in the third quarter, up 9.7% year over year, including 11 million buyers from Depop and Tise.
Depop’s US GMV doubled, which Bernstein believes helps expand eBay’s addressable market. Livestreaming is another new growth channel; the firm believes it could contribute 3 to 4 percentage points of growth in 2027, although how much of that represents genuinely incremental transactions remains to be determined.
The company expects organic GMV growth at constant currency of 8%–10% in the fourth quarter of 2026, or 12%–14% including Depop; Bernstein considers this guidance conservative. For 2027, the firm expects organic growth of about 8% and combined growth of 10.5%, with the difference coming from Depop. Visibility into longer-term growth in categories such as collectibles is relatively limited.

Third-quarter revenue was 3.206 billion dollars, up 13.7% year over year; adjusted operating profit was 843 million dollars, up 10.9% year over year and 3.5% above Bernstein’s expectations. Both revenue and profit grew, but more slowly than GMV.
The platform’s monetization rate was 13.8% of GMV, down from about 14.0% a year earlier; the adjusted operating margin was 26.3%, also below 27.0% in the prior-year period.
Depop’s marketing and logistics spending remains a concern for margins. Bernstein estimates that staff reductions freed up more than 200 million dollars of capacity that could help the company absorb this spending; management emphasized balancing investment with earnings growth.

Bernstein incorporated higher GMV expectations into its model, raised its operating profit forecast, and increased its 2027 adjusted earnings per share estimate from 6.89 dollars to 7.13 dollars.
The firm raised its price target from 115 dollars to 125 dollars and maintained its Market Perform rating. Relative to the closing price of 118.02 dollars on 28 October 2026, the target implies upside of about 6%.