BYD drives rebound in weekly new-energy vehicle orders as lithium carbonate prices fall another 8%
Orders for key brands tracked by Goldman Sachs rose 9% week over week in week 43, but fell 2% excluding BYD; over the same period, new-energy vehicle wholesale sales grew year over year, while retail sales remained below last year's level.
Original source：Goldman SachsFirst published on Unhidea：Original source date：
Key takeaway
BYD's new fast-charging vehicles drove a rebound in weekly orders for key brands, but industry retail sales and orders for other brands remained under pressure, while upstream lithium carbonate prices continued to fall.
Who drove the rebound in weekly orders?
Combined orders for key new-energy vehicle brands tracked by Goldman Sachs rose 9% week over week from 19 October to the 25th, but were still down 28% year over year. Excluding BYD, combined orders fell 2% week over week and 36% year over year.
Goldman Sachs attributed the overall rebound mainly to the launch of BYD fast-charging models: the Dahan EV was launched on 13 October and the refreshed Seagull on 20 October, both equipped with second-generation Blade batteries. BYD's orders rose 30% week over week, while Xiaomi and Leapmotor each grew 6%.
How did end-market retail sales perform as wholesale sales grew?
China Passenger Car Association data show that retail sales of new-energy passenger vehicles totaled 520 thousand units from 1 October to the 18th, down 13% year over year and 2% from the previous period; wholesale sales over the same period totaled 655 thousand units, up 5% year over year and 1% from the previous period. Wholesale and retail sales diverged in year-over-year terms.
Over the same period, new-energy vehicles accounted for 65.9% of passenger vehicle retail sales, below September's 67.1%; their share of wholesale sales was 76.8%, above September's 66.1%.
How did dealer discounts change?
As of 26 October, the average new-energy vehicle dealer discount was 7.80% of the manufacturer's suggested retail price, down from 8.05% on 17 October; BYD's average discount fell from 4.84% to 3.92%.
Over the same period, the average discount for fuel-powered vehicles was 19.69%, compared with 19.87% on 17 October; the figures at these two points indicate a relatively small change in fuel-powered vehicle discounts.
Did lower battery raw-material prices pass through to cells?
As of 26 October, battery-grade lithium carbonate was priced at 100.5 thousand yuan per tonne, down 8% from the previous period and 47% from its May 2026 peak, but still 36% higher than a year earlier.
In the same week, prices for prismatic lithium iron phosphate cells and ternary cells were unchanged week over week, at 0.35 yuan and 0.47 yuan per watt-hour, respectively. Raw-material and cell prices did not move in tandem that week.
