Capacity is accelerating. Why is commercial deployment still some way off?

  • JPMorgan observes that Chinese humanoid robot makers are rapidly expanding capacity, but the applications displayed at the China International Industry Fair remain relatively basic. Recent production has been used more for data collection and training than for customer deployments with higher returns on investment.
  • Production expectations for Tesla’s Optimus were once around 15 thousand to 50 thousand units. They were later clarified as 10 thousand to 20 thousand units before external sales, with external sales targeted for the end of 2027.
  • Hyundai Motor Group plans to expand annual capacity to 30 thousand units starting in 2028, with initial deployments focused on simple tasks. JPMorgan expects assembly applications with more significant economic value to scale up only after 2030.

Which parts of China’s supply chain may monetize sooner?

  • JPMorgan sees Leaderdrive as an actuator beneficiary of the scaling up of humanoid robots. According to the report, related products account for approximately 40% of the company’s revenue. The company plans to expand capacity by approximately 10 times within three years and move toward actuator solutions that integrate multiple reducer technologies and motors.
  • Orbbec and Mech-Mind believe perception technologies such as 3D vision and AI recognition can first be used in embodied AI solutions for specific tasks, and may therefore find industrial demand before humanoid robots are deployed at scale.

What different challenges do South Korean component companies face?

  • JPMorgan expects Hyundai Mobis to become a key actuator supplier to Hyundai Motor Group from 2028 and is considering establishing a US actuator manufacturing base near the group’s humanoid robot factory in Georgia. Its opportunity is closely tied to the group’s humanoid robot plans.
  • Mobis is also co-developing a dexterous hand module. The latest design has four fingers and 13 degrees of freedom, and is expected to support the use of power tools while expanding its supply content beyond the approximately 30 body actuators per robot.
  • Robotis’s advantage is its broader customer coverage and its ability to continue serving customers from research and development through production. The company expects to start production in Uzbekistan at the end of the first quarter or the beginning of the second quarter of 2027 to improve its cost position relative to Chinese peers.

How does JPMorgan assess the next stage of opportunity?

  • The bank believes the next round of valuation gains will depend more on actual mass production, confirmed orders and improved unit economics. The key is whether robots can perform industrial tasks of commercial value and whether output can be converted into revenue and margins.
  • Among companies in China, JPMorgan’s preferences, in order, are Unitree Robotics, Leaderdrive, Orbbec and UBTECH. In South Korea, it prefers Hyundai Motor and Kia among robot manufacturers; among component suppliers, Robotis is its first choice, followed by Mobis and Mando.
  • Near-term milestones to watch include Hyundai Motor Group’s manufacturing investment plans for the fourth quarter of 2026, its CES showcase in early 2027, and the ramp-up of Robotis’s Uzbekistan capacity. The ability of Chinese manufacturers to turn output into actual deployments in 2027–2028 is also critical.