Citi: Singles’ Day (Double 11) shifts to direct price cuts; Citi expects overall GMV growth to slow to 2%–5%

What is the growth baseline for this year’s Singles’ Day (Double 11)?

Citi expects overall gross merchandise value (GMV) for Singles’ Day (Double 11) in 2026 to grow 2%–5% year on year, driven by faster growth at Douyin, JD.com’s service categories and competition among instant retail platforms.
For comparison, Syntun estimates that combined e-commerce and instant retail GMV for Singles’ Day (Double 11) in 2025 was approximately 1.7 trillion yuan, up 14.2% year on year; e-commerce platforms accounted for approximately 1.62 trillion yuan, up 12.3%. Promotional windows differ across years and platforms.
Growth during the 2026 618 shopping festival had already slowed markedly: Syntun estimates total GMV at 934 billion yuan, up 4.0% year on year. Comprehensive e-commerce platforms grew only 0.9% to 863.6 billion yuan, instant retail grew 112.3% to 62.8 billion yuan, and community group buying fell 39.6% to 7.6 billion yuan.

Citi observed that major platforms have moved away from the cross-store spending-threshold discounts used in previous years toward direct price cuts. The bank believes reducing purchases made to meet thresholds can help lower returns and cancellations and improve logistics efficiency.
Subsidies are more concentrated on members with higher long-term value, such as 88VIP and JD Plus members, to improve conversion and retention; merchants are placing greater emphasis on marketing returns and profitability rather than pursuing sales at a loss.
Platforms are also encouraging merchants to use AI tools. Tmall applies related features to product selection, content operations, customer communication, advertising and data analysis; JD.com plans to integrate AI into more than 3000 use cases across retail, logistics and other areas.

Within four hours of Tmall’s sales launch on 20 October, 124 brands had sales exceeding 100 million yuan; 27681 brands exceeded their sales on the first day of last year’s launch. Supported by subsidies, sales in digital electronics and mobile phones grew by more than 400% and 900% year on year, respectively.
JD.com launched its campaign on 12 October with in-stock sales and direct price cuts, with the number of purchasing users rising by double digits year on year on the first day. Beyond physical goods, JD.com has expanded services into more than 100 subcategories; Citi lists services as one of the growth drivers for this year’s Singles’ Day (Double 11).

During Douyin’s opening sales phase from 15 October to the 18th, the number of livestream rooms with sales exceeding 100 million yuan rose 80% year on year; the number of fast-moving consumer goods brands with sales exceeding 100 million yuan rose 167%. The report attributes the performance of fast-moving consumer goods to stockpiling and seasonal demand.
Kuaishou offers merchants and content creators at different levels traffic support, subsidies and AI operations tools to help match content, products and users. Among the livestreams it organized with leading creators, several hosts set personal sales records after the official sales launch on 14 October.
Citi expects platforms may continue not to disclose overall GMV and instead highlight better-performing categories, user engagement and AI-driven sales metrics; the figures disclosed for the opening phase therefore mainly show selected aspects of each platform’s performance.