Physical AI needs more data, optical connectors scale up: what will sustain refrigerants and overseas auto expansion?

Why does the physical AI opportunity begin with data collection?

Guosheng Securities believes robots are moving from prototype demonstrations to a production ramp-up, but data is scarcer than complete machines: the materials cite only 500 thousand hours of compliant real-world physical interaction data in China, while commercialization requires tens of millions of hours. A lack of tactile and force data directly limits fine manipulation at the millimeter level.
Model tests in the materials also show this gap: the success rate for zero-shot block grasping reaches 95%, but falls to 10% for millimeter-level assembly. Large models mainly handle task understanding and corrections at key points, while other modules still perform underlying high-frequency motion control.
There are two scalable ways to fill the data gap: robots working on real production lines and feeding data back, and wearable devices recording human movements to spread collection costs. Guosheng sees relatively high visibility for current equipment and solution revenue; growth in demand for reducers, lead screws, motors and other components depends on robot reliability and deployment scale, while monetization of data assets also depends on progress in model commercialization.

Kaiyuan Securities believes the expected simultaneous rise in volume and prices for MPO connectors and DFAU fiber array units has begun to materialize. In the third quarter of 2026, Shijia Photons reported revenue of 1.227 billion yuan and net profit of 271 million yuan, up 33.51% and 36.43% quarter on quarter, respectively, with profit rising alongside revenue.
In the third quarter, Zhishang Technology reported revenue of 635 million yuan, up 52.34% quarter on quarter; net profit attributable to shareholders was 42 million yuan, up 140.88% quarter on quarter and returning to profit year on year. Attributable net profit for the first three quarters nevertheless fell year on year, which the materials attribute to an equity disposal that raised the prior-year comparison base.
Orders also need to be assessed by category: JPT received approximately 1.11 billion yuan in fiber connector purchase orders from a North American customer during the year, equivalent to 53.52% of its 2025 revenue. Zhishang Technology's memorandum with a customer for 2027, by contrast, is a demand forecast with a target of approximately 3.365 billion yuan, or 3.37 times its 2025 revenue. The latter indicates intended demand and carries a different degree of certainty from orders already received.

Orient Securities expects the third-generation refrigerant upcycle to continue, primarily supported by rigid supply. In the fourth quarter of 2026, the cash settlement price under long-term R32 contracts for major air-conditioner manufacturers was 65 thousand yuan per tonne, up 500 yuan from the previous quarter; the total HFCs production quota for 2027 is 1.853 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, unchanged from 2026.
Demand is uneven: in the first three quarters of 2026, domestic air-conditioner and automobile output fell 3.5% and 3.7% year on year, respectively, while end-consumption momentum was weak in the off-season. The firm's demand assessment relies more on the continuing increase in the installed base of refrigeration equipment than on accelerating current output; it is focused on companies with leading quota shares.

China Merchants Securities believes 2026 may mark the peak in export growth. Exports rose 65.8% year on year in the first three quarters, but accelerated shipments to Brazil and inventory replenishment in Russia in the first half contributed an incremental 517 thousand vehicles, roughly one-quarter of the increase over the same period; from 2027, exports are more likely to enter a plateau at a high level, with local production taking over.
The firm estimates exports of approximately 13 million vehicles in 2030, and total overseas sales of 17.5 million–18 million vehicles including overseas factories. The two figures should not be conflated as export targets: as of the third quarter of 2026, seven major automakers had 1.48 million vehicles of overseas production capacity in operation, and local manufacturing is an important source of incremental overseas sales.
Overseas profitability is attractive, but costs are a constraint: the materials list BYD's overseas gross margin at 21.71%, 6.04 percentage points above its domestic margin; daily roll-on/roll-off ship charter rates, meanwhile, rose from 42.5 thousand dollars at the end of 2025 to 112 thousand dollars in July 2026, with the added freight cost per vehicle enough to consume the export gross profit on an A0-class small car. This makes local factories and mid- to high-end models more competitive.