RoboTechnik’s third-quarter profit falls below Goldman Sachs expectations, with higher deliveries expected in the fourth quarter

Why did third-quarter growth still fall short of expectations?

Revenue in the third quarter of 2026 was 393 million yuan, up 134% year on year but down 12% quarter on quarter and 29% below Goldman Sachs’ previous estimate of 550 million yuan. Goldman Sachs attributed the quarter-on-quarter decline to the timing of customer purchases and expects the related revenue to drive fourth-quarter growth.
Third-quarter net profit was 55 million yuan, up 21% quarter on quarter but 50% below Goldman Sachs’ previous estimate of 109 million yuan. The operating expense ratio was 27.7% during the period, above the bank’s expectation of 23.5%.
An improvement in gross margin was a highlight: it reached 49.0% in the third quarter, above 34.2% a year earlier, 43.6% in the second quarter and Goldman Sachs’ expectation of 47.9%. Goldman Sachs attributed the improvement to a higher share of optical equipment, which carries higher margins.

Management is optimistic that demand for optical networks will drive growth in equipment related to CPO, NPO, high-speed FAU, OCS and optical modules. Goldman Sachs believes the company’s leading position in testing equipment puts it in a position to benefit early from the CPO trend.
The company is working with customers to develop new projects and expanding capacity in Suzhou and Europe to accommodate expected order growth. In October 2026, the company approved a subsidiary’s purchase agreement for a factory, office building and construction land in Europe, for a total of 9.8 million euros.

Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about the revenue contribution from optical equipment in testing, coupling and assembly, but has lowered its optical equipment revenue forecasts because order delivery times have lengthened. The bank cut its net profit forecasts for 2026 through 2030 by 18%, 11%, 10%, 9% and 8%, respectively.
After the revisions, Goldman Sachs forecasts revenue of 2.104 billion yuan and net profit of 378 million yuan in 2026, and revenue of 11.592 billion yuan and net profit of 3.42 billion yuan in 2027. Changes in the product mix also led the bank to cut its gross margin forecasts for 2026 through 2030 by 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points.
Goldman Sachs maintained its buy rating and lowered its 12-month price target from 796 yuan to 732 yuan. The target is based on forecast earnings per share for 2031 and a target price-to-earnings multiple of 20.7 times, discounted back to 2027 at a cost of equity of 11.3%.