Bernstein: Staggered iPhone 18 launch weighs on sales; Bernstein estimates Apple fiscal-quarter revenue below expectations

Why did sales fall in September while the Pro sold better?

Global iPhone sell-through fell 9.4% year over year in September 2026, ending 18 consecutive months of year-over-year growth. Sell-through revenue fell 9.5%, while the average selling price was roughly flat to slightly lower. Bernstein attributes the decline primarily to the postponement of the standard iPhone 18 launch until spring 2027.
The 18 Pro and Pro Max sold a combined 8 million units in their first month, 13% more than the 7 million units sold by the equivalent 17-generation models in their first month. Including the standard model and other models, however, total first-month sales of the 18 series were 33% lower than those of last year’s 17 series.
In the third calendar quarter of 2026, global iPhone sell-through still rose 2.0% year over year, and revenue grew 2.3%; shipments to the channel fell 1.7% over the same period. Apple’s global smartphone market share rose to 21% from 20% in the previous quarter.

China iPhone revenue rose 7.6% year over year in the third calendar quarter, while sales rose 12.8%. The 18 Pro series was well received, driving 9.2% revenue growth in China in September. By contrast, quarterly revenue fell 0.6% in the United States and 5.3% in Europe.
In September, 22 million units were shipped to channels globally, exceeding sell-through of 20.1 million units. Channel inventory rose 4% from the previous month to 46.6 million units, increasing for a second consecutive month.
As sell-through rebounded month over month, weeks of inventory fell from 12.5 weeks in August to 10.1 weeks in September, but remained well above the seasonal level for September in previous years.

Based on channel data, Bernstein estimates Apple shipped 55 million iPhones in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, below its estimate of 58.6 million and the market consensus of 58.2 million. Its implied average selling price of 907 dollars was also below its estimate of 991 dollars and the consensus of 969 dollars.
With both volume and price weighing on the result, the firm estimates iPhone revenue at 49.9 billion dollars, 12% below market consensus. It estimates services revenue at 31.92 billion dollars using a regression model based on App Store data, about 1% above consensus and broadly in line with expectations.
The two combined total approximately 81.8 billion dollars, 7% below market consensus. Bernstein cautions that Counterpoint data may be revised and that the average selling price and product mix of channel shipments may differ from sell-through, with these differences in measurement affecting actual reported revenue.

Shipments of the A20 Pro processor used in the 18 Pro and Pro Max have surpassed those of the comparable A18 Pro and are approaching those of last year’s A19 Pro, which was used in three models. Bernstein believes TSMC’s AI demand is sufficient to absorb potential changes in smartphone orders.
A higher share of models with more memory drove average DRAM capacity per iPhone up 8% month over month to 10.4 GB in September. Year-over-year growth, however, slowed from 26% in August to 14%, because last year’s iPhone 17 launch raised the comparison base.
Bernstein believes the standard-model launch in spring 2027 could bring additional capacity growth, but whether the standard model will be upgraded to 12 GB remains uncertain amid memory shortages and rising prices.