OPT's third-quarter profit beats Goldman Sachs estimate by 77% as semiconductors and industrial AI take over as growth drivers
Semiconductor inspection and industrial AI projects drove OPT's third-quarter revenue up 46% year on year; expenses grew more slowly than revenue, driving operating profit up 122%. Goldman Sachs raised its target price but maintained a Neutral rating.
Original source：Goldman SachsFirst published on Unhidea：Original source date：
Key takeaway
OPT benefited from semiconductor and industrial AI demand in the third quarter, with profit growing faster than revenue; growth in 2027 depends on a recovery in consumer electronics investment and the expansion of new businesses.
Why did profit grow faster in a stronger-than-expected third quarter?
In the third quarter of 2026, OPT reported revenue of 482 million yuan, up 46% year on year and 12% above Goldman Sachs' forecast; operating profit was 65 million yuan, up 122% year on year and 77% above Goldman Sachs' forecast. Goldman Sachs attributed the beat mainly to faster-than-expected progress in semiconductor manufacturing inspection and industrial AI projects.
Revenue expanded faster than expenses: third-quarter operating expenses rose 25% year on year, below revenue growth of 46%, so the operating margin rose 5 percentage points year on year to 13%. Gross margin was 57%, down 1 percentage point year on year, mainly because high-margin consumer electronics accounted for a smaller share of revenue.
Growth was stronger than a year earlier, but results fell from the previous quarter: third-quarter revenue declined 12% quarter on quarter, operating profit fell 47%, and operating margin dropped 9 percentage points.
How much have the semiconductor and new energy businesses grown?
Third-quarter revenue from semiconductors and optical modules was 94 million yuan, up 265% year on year and accounting for 19% of company revenue for the quarter. Management expects the business to generate more than 250 million yuan in revenue in 2026; within that, its second-half target for optical modules is more than 100 million yuan, compared with 20 million yuan in the first half.
Management has set a 2027 revenue target of more than 400 million yuan for semiconductors and optical modules, representing approximately 60% year-on-year growth, with a focus on optical transceiver modules and high-density PCB inspection. Orders this year have benefited mainly from spillover demand arising from semiconductor capacity expansion, and the company plans to approach customers more proactively starting in the fourth quarter.
Third-quarter revenue from new energy and lithium batteries was 149 million yuan, up 55% year on year and accounting for 31% of quarterly revenue; management expects the business to generate at least 400 million yuan in revenue in 2026 and growth to stabilize in 2027.
What would allow consumer electronics to shift from subdued growth to acceleration?
Consumer electronics revenue for the first three quarters was 593 million yuan, down 1% year on year; third-quarter revenue was 167 million yuan, up just 3% year on year. Management expects a seasonal slowdown in the fourth quarter and broadly flat revenue for the full year.
Management targets year-on-year consumer electronics revenue growth of more than 50% in 2027. The basis includes expected customer capital expenditure growth of 30% for new manufacturing processes such as curved-display packaging, advanced cooling modules and glass bodies; the company also hopes to gain share and double AI revenue in consumer electronics.
Management expects a recovery in the high-margin consumer electronics business, a larger semiconductor contribution and a further decline in the expense ratio to improve margins in 2027. Goldman Sachs also noted the company's substantial dependence on the consumer electronics industry and a single customer, and that competition could depress prices and margins.
How is industrial AI changing the inspection business?
The company's AI application revenue for the first three quarters was 301 million yuan, up 157% year on year and exceeding its internal target set at the start of the year; management raised its 2027 AI-related revenue target to 600 million yuan.
The company has accumulated more than 100 million industrial defect samples and, through automatic annotation and generative defect modeling, has shortened deployment cycles in new customer domains from 15 days to 1–2 days, reducing deployment costs and validation time.
Robot vision sensor modules are already generating commercial revenue; 3D vision products for consumer devices remain in prototype trials involving four to five customers and currently generate no significant revenue.
Why did Goldman Sachs raise its target price while maintaining Neutral?
Based on third-quarter results and the growth outlook for 2027, Goldman Sachs raised its earnings-per-share forecasts for 2026–2030 by 7%–11% and increased its 12-month target price from 105 yuan to 115.9 yuan, while maintaining a Neutral rating.
The new target price uses an unchanged 2027 forecast price-to-earnings multiple of 35 times and is discounted at a cost of equity of 11.5%. Relative to the share price of 148.48 yuan listed in the report, the target implies approximately 21.9% downside.
