Goldman Sachs: October agricultural prices retreat, while PET remains high and dairy cost pressures persist

How much pressure are packaging costs under?

In October 2026, the average price of packaging PET rose 13% month over month and 56% year over year, the most pronounced change among packaging materials. Over the same period, pulp prices fell 2% month over month, while aluminum prices rose 1.6%; year over year, they were still up 6% and 12%, respectively.
As of 2 November, the PET spot price was about 9150 yuan per tonne, slightly below its level at the start of October, but roughly in line with the October average. It was up about 48% year to date. High raw material prices mean that PET costs remain a pressure point for industries such as beverages.

In October, soybean and soybean meal prices fell 3.7% and 3.9% month over month, respectively, while palm oil fell 4.3%. However, all three remained above the same period a year earlier, by 15%, 12% and 1%, respectively. The month-over-month declines have not yet eliminated the year-over-year increases in soybean and soybean meal prices.
Prices of sunflower seeds and pepper fell more sharply: in October, they were down 5% and 6% month over month, and 18% and 29% year over year, respectively. The cost index for condiment companies tracked by Goldman Sachs also declined that month, covering ingredients such as sugar, soybean meal, monosodium glutamate and pepper.

Goldman Sachs noted that, affected by El Niño, international raw sugar prices in October rose 6.6% from September. As of 30 October, they were up 17% year to date and 21% year over year. Imported sugar accounts for about 30% of China’s sugar consumption.
The domestic spot price of white granulated sugar was flat month over month in October and down 1% year over year. Goldman Sachs considers ample domestic supply one possible reason; domestic production costs and import-quota tariffs also affect the transmission of international prices to domestic prices. Sugar accounts for more than 10% of condiment companies’ cost of sales.

Goldman Sachs believes raw milk supply and demand are improving and expects them to move toward rebalancing in the second half of 2026, citing a smaller dairy herd, lower net imports and a moderate recovery in demand. Raw milk prices gradually recovered from July to October, and were up 4% year over year as of 29 October.
Recent supply data point in different directions: milk production rose 2.4% year over year in the third quarter of 2026. In September, milk powder imports totaled 32 thousand tonnes, up 41% year over year, while imports of dry dairy products totaled 122 thousand tonnes, up 15%.
Higher milk powder prices also pushed up downstream costs: Goldman Sachs’ dairy cost index rose 0.3% month over month and 6.8% year over year in October, the largest month-over-month cost increase that month among the sectors it tracks.