Ninebot’s third-quarter revenue rises without profit growth as a higher two-wheeler share weighs on overall gross margin

Where did third-quarter results fall short?

Ninebot’s revenue in the third quarter of 2026 was 7.585 billion yuan, up 14% year on year and down 11% quarter on quarter, missing the VA consensus by 9%. Net profit was 343 million yuan, down 37% year on year and 57% quarter on quarter, missing the consensus by 33%.
Overall gross margin was 23.1%, down 5.3 percentage points year on year and 6.6 percentage points quarter on quarter, and 2.1 percentage points below the consensus. Revenue and gross margin both falling short of expectations were the main reasons for the earnings miss.

Third-quarter electric two-wheeler revenue was 5.08 billion yuan, up 14% year on year; sales volume was 1.8096 million units, up 22%. Sales volume grew faster than revenue, and management also said the business’s average selling price fell year on year.
Although individual gross margins for two-wheelers and robotic lawnmowers both improved quarter on quarter, higher raw-material prices and competitive marketing spending continued to exert pressure. Two-wheelers have relatively low gross margins, and their share of revenue rose from 48% in the second quarter to 67% in the third quarter, pulling down the group’s overall gross margin.

Affected by national 3C recertification in November, management slightly lowered its full-year 2026 two-wheeler shipment outlook and said the main production bases could complete certification on schedule. Given the low base in the previous year, the company expects year-on-year performance to remain solid in the fourth quarter.
Management expects domestic two-wheeler industry sales volume in 2027 to range between a year-on-year decline of 5% and growth of 5%. The company hopes to improve its own two-wheeler average selling price and gross margin year on year by optimizing its product mix and reducing aggressive promotions after gaining market share.
The company currently has more than 11 thousand domestic stores and targets about 12 thousand by the end of 2026 and about 13 thousand in 2027. Its focus will shift toward improving efficiency per store. Construction of its self-built Vietnam factory is expected to be completed in December 2026, with a meaningful revenue contribution starting in 2028.

To address EU anti-dumping tariffs, the company plans to shift most of its robotic lawnmower production capacity to Southeast Asia in 2027, with local production costs expected to rise by about 10%. Whether it can pass on the costs through price increases depends on market competition and remains under assessment.
Management believes overseas supply chains, brands and distribution channels create barriers to entry. A small number of companies have already established overseas production capacity, and the competitive environment may improve in 2027. Existing product models certified by the US FCC can support local sales for 1 to 2 years; Europe is the near-term strategic focus.

Citi maintained its revenue forecasts for 2026–2028, but lowered its overall gross-margin forecasts for each year by 1 to 1.5 percentage points in view of weak gross margins in the first nine months. It also raised its forecast for foreign-exchange losses in 2026 and cut its net-profit forecasts for the three years by 11% to 29%, to 1.337 billion yuan, 2.052 billion yuan and 2.433 billion yuan respectively.
Citi maintained its Buy rating and lowered its target price from 62.5 yuan to 53 yuan. Using projected average annual net-profit growth of 16% for 2027–2029 and a PEG multiple of 1.2 times, the bank arrived at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 19 times expected 2027 earnings. Its growth assessment relies on growth in smart short-distance mobility products and gradual margin improvement from economies of scale.