AI shopping agents stick with bank cards: JPMorgan raises its outlook for card networks and traditional acquirers
Browsers and virtual cards are lowering the barrier for merchants to participate in AI shopping. JPMorgan believes the payments landscape will be closer to existing e-commerce than it expected six months ago: card networks will benefit, traditional acquirers will face less pressure, and express checkout services will face stronger competition. Near-term transaction volumes and consumer trust, however, still limit the impact on earnings.
Original source：J.P. MorganFirst published on Unhidea：Original source date：
Key takeaway
JPMorgan believes AI shopping is expanding within the existing e-commerce and bank-card system, changing the competitive balance across payment services, while near-term transaction volumes remain too small to materially affect industry earnings.
Why is the payments landscape more stable than expected six months ago?
Six months ago, JPMorgan expected AI shopping to require complex integrations with merchant systems, further increasing the advantage of technology-focused payment providers. Muse and Instinct now use browsers to shop on users’ behalf and virtual cards to check out, allowing merchants to retain their traditional e-commerce processes.
This approach eliminates the need to integrate merchants individually, but is less reliable and efficient than connecting directly to merchant product catalogs and checkout systems. Improvements in model capabilities and parties such as Stripe acting as merchant of record are important supports for its implementation.
Why do Visa and Mastercard benefit, but double fees seem unlikely to last?
Transactions with merchants that are not directly integrated usually generate two card-network transactions: the consumer first funds a virtual card, which then pays the merchant, increasing network transactions and fees. JPMorgan expects this benefit from two transactions to fade as direct integration and payments using tokens in place of sensitive card information become more widespread.
A more durable advantage comes from trust and rules. The bank believes the complexity of fraud, chargebacks and dispute handling introduced by agents will increase the value of Visa and Mastercard establishing a common framework; issuing banks still decide whether transactions are approved, and third-party authentication services also need network connections to issuers.
Traditional acquirers face less pressure, but who still faces competition?
Browser checkout reduces the importance of complex technical integration, allowing traditional acquirers’ scale and pricing advantages to remain effective. JPMorgan still expects newer payment providers to gain share, but no longer believes AI shopping will necessarily accelerate that process.
Express checkout services face more direct pressure: if users choose a button simply to avoid entering card details, agents can do that for them, weakening the usage advantage provided by convenience. Trust and lending capabilities remain valuable; the bank is positive about Affirm’s ability to extend credit in transactions involving agents and believes PayPal’s and Klarna’s brands help retain users, but retaining share will be more demanding.
Users are growing rapidly, so why is the near-term earnings impact still small?
Sensor Tower shows that Muse recorded nearly 12 million downloads worldwide from its launch on 8 September through mid-October; Meta says 25% of users use it for shopping, with an average purchase exceeding 200 dollars. But in JPMorgan’s survey, only about 30% of consumers were at least somewhat comfortable with agent transactions, making it difficult to extrapolate early users’ enthusiasm directly.
The bank expects a limited near-term impact because the user and transaction bases remain small and building trust takes time. Allocation of transaction liability is another barrier to expansion: adoption could advance if a party is willing to act as merchant of record and assume liability; retail will still require a gradual adjustment, while business-to-business transactions may scale sooner.
Why are digital banks and remittances rated neutral overall?
The digital banks covered by the bank mainly serve low- and middle-income customers, with revenue dependent on card spending and short-term borrowing. AI can help users discover lower-fee services and will also bring pressure from price comparisons; but short-term borrowers place greater value on credit limits and approval rates. Fees for instant transfers are more vulnerable to pressure and account for about 20% of Cash App’s gross profit in 2026, according to the bank’s estimate.
Price comparisons in remittances could depress growth and margins. Remitly and Western Union have moderately high costs relative to peers and are therefore more sensitive. But trust, delivery speed and cash pickup networks influence choices; if AI mainly improves service discovery, Remitly, which integrated earlier, could also gain additional traffic.
