Mining Daily: Copper prices rise, but miners’ profits face tests from costs, shipments and project timing

Why did two Chinese miners’ results still fall slightly short of expectations despite stronger copper prices?

Overnight copper prices rose 1.9% to 6.56 dollars per pound. CMOC Group’s third-quarter 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.9 billion yuan, up 175% year on year but down 6% quarter on quarter. JPMorgan said results fell slightly short of expectations, mainly because copper unit costs were relatively high, copper shipments fell 2% quarter on quarter, and operating and free cash flow turned negative.
CMOC Group’s third-quarter cobalt sales rose 86% quarter on quarter to 6900 tonnes. Copper, cobalt and gold production in the first three quarters was broadly on track with full-year guidance. JPMorgan maintained its overweight rating while watching costs, sales timing and implementation of cobalt export quotas in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Zijin Mining’s third-quarter net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.4 billion yuan, up 26% year on year and down 4% quarter on quarter; core profit fell 9% quarter on quarter. The bank said the main reason results fell slightly short was that production of major metals had reached less than 70% of full-year guidance, making fourth-quarter production increases and future guidance key areas of focus.

Whitehaven Coal’s first-quarter run-of-mine coal production for fiscal 2027 was 11 million tonnes, respectively 10% and 21% above JPMorgan’s and Bloomberg consensus expectations. However, sales of its own coal were 7.6 million tonnes, 10% below the bank’s forecast.
Port loading disruptions pushed sales of approximately 900 thousand tonnes of saleable coal into the quarter ending in December, while inventories rose by 1.4 million tonnes to 5.3 million tonnes. Period-end net debt was approximately 1.4 billion Australian dollars, above the bank’s forecast of 1.3 billion Australian dollars; JPMorgan expects the inventory backlog to decline in the quarter ending in December.
The company maintained its full-year guidance. The bank estimates that average quarterly run-of-mine production of approximately 9.5 million tonnes over the remaining three quarters would be enough to reach the midpoint of full-year guidance. However, lower forecast Queensland equity sales and a slightly lower first-quarter realised price led the bank to cut its fiscal 2027 underlying net profit forecast by 5% to 578 million Australian dollars.

Newmont’s third-quarter production met JPMorgan’s expectations, and all-in sustaining costs were 13% below expectations, driving EBITDA and earnings per share above forecasts. However, the company’s production and cost outlook for fiscal 2027 was slightly weaker than the bank expected, and growth capital expenditure was about 1 billion dollars higher; the bank therefore cut its earnings forecast for that year by 6%.
A final investment decision on Newmont’s Red Chris project is expected in early 2027. Company metrics indicate attributable capital expenditure of approximately 3.2 billion dollars; average annual production in 2035–2040 is forecast at 210 thousand ounces of gold and 52 thousand tonnes of copper. First production is three years later than the bank expected, but a longer mine life broadly offsets the impact.
Mineral Resources’ first-quarter mining services volume reached a record 103 million tonnes, about 10% above market consensus. Costs at its Wodgina lithium business were below consensus, while Mt Marion costs were at the upper end of full-year guidance. Lower capital expenditure helped reduce net debt to approximately 4.1 billion Australian dollars, and the company maintained full-year guidance for all businesses.

JSW Steel’s second fiscal-quarter pro forma EBITDA rose 39% year on year, slightly above Bloomberg consensus. However, realised prices were weak because price increases take time to pass through, coming in 5% below JPMorgan’s forecast. Sales volumes rose 13% year on year and 19% quarter on quarter, while the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio fell to 1.28 times from 1.46 times in the previous quarter.
Management expects improved steel prices in the third quarter of fiscal 2027 to offset coking coal cost pressure and expand EBITDA per tonne. JPMorgan expects both prices and sales volumes to improve in the second half, and its full-year EBITDA forecast is 15% above market consensus. However, the bank also expects steel prices to trade more within a range in the second half after rising strongly since the end of July.
European steelmakers face a different mix: JPMorgan sees weak European demand and rising input costs as pressures, while trade protection provides structural support. The bank expects SSAB’s EBITDA to grow about 35% in 2027 and is focused on its fourth-quarter guidance.

Norsk Hydro expects combined costs across its two upstream businesses to rise by 900 million to 1.3 billion Norwegian kroner quarter on quarter in the fourth quarter, and its metal markets trading business to post a loss of 150 million to 250 million Norwegian kroner. JPMorgan is concerned that EBITDA in 2027 could face further pressure if Alunorte cannot secure a competitive long-term natural gas contract and continues to buy spot liquefied natural gas linked to TTF prices.
Southern Copper recorded record EBITDA for a fourth consecutive quarter. Copper prices and by-product contributions offset higher energy and fuel costs, and the company generated substantial free cash flow despite increased capital expenditure. The Tía María project has been delayed to the first half of 2028 because of mechanical assembly and additional engineering work. JPMorgan believes current bond valuations already reflect the company’s operating strength and maintains a neutral view.