ASMPT orders hit record high; fourth-quarter revenue guidance beats expectations, but advanced packaging deliveries are slower

Where does fourth-quarter guidance exceed expectations?

ASMPT expects fourth-quarter 2026 revenue of 670 million to 730 million dollars, up 32% to 43% year over year and 0% to 9% sequentially. The midpoint of 700 million dollars is 3% above Goldman Sachs’ forecast and 9% above Bloomberg consensus.
Management expects SMT revenue to grow by double digits sequentially. SEMI revenue is expected to remain roughly flat because of longer delivery cycles for advanced packaging products. The company’s fourth-quarter gross margin guidance is 42.0%, above Goldman Sachs’ forecast of 40.9%.

The group booked a record 1.128 billion dollars in new orders in the third quarter of 2026, up 25% sequentially and 138% year over year. The book-to-bill ratio rose to 1.69, compared with 1.43 in the preceding quarter and 1.05 a year earlier.
Management expects fourth-quarter new orders to remain high year over year, though below the third-quarter record; AI-related demand will continue to support revenue growth in 2027. Goldman Sachs believes the thermocompression bonding (TCB) and photonics businesses could benefit from an AI infrastructure upcycle.

Third-quarter revenue was 5.247 billion Hong Kong dollars, up 43% year over year and 6% sequentially, and 1% above both Goldman Sachs’ forecast and Bloomberg consensus. Gross margin was 42.1%, up 6.4 percentage points year over year but down 0.3 percentage points sequentially.
The operating expense ratio was 26.9%, below Goldman Sachs’ forecast of 28.5% and market consensus of 27.8%, driving operating profit to 799 million Hong Kong dollars, 14% and 9% above those estimates, respectively.
Net profit was 533 million Hong Kong dollars, up 59% sequentially and 9% above Goldman Sachs’ forecast, but 8% below Bloomberg consensus; the operating profit beat did not translate into a comparable net profit beat against consensus.

Goldman Sachs maintains its Neutral rating on ASMPT and its 12-month price target of 183 Hong Kong dollars, based on 24.9 times forecast 2030 earnings, discounted back to 2027.
The bank sees the pace of customer adoption of advanced packaging equipment, as well as the strength of demand from automotive customers and for traditional integrated circuit packaging and SMT equipment, as key variables affecting its assessment.