Bernstein: North American data center projects expand to 488GW as shelved capacity also climbs

How fast is the project pipeline growing, and is construction keeping up?

In October 2026, the North American data center project pipeline reached 488.2GW, up 32GW, or 7%, month over month; however, the monthly increase was lower than the 52.2GW recorded in September. Real estate developers contributed 14.9GW of the month's increase, while hyperscale cloud providers contributed 2.9GW.
Capacity under construction rose 7.3GW month over month to 87.2GW, an increase of 9%. At the construction rate of the past 12 months, it would take 12.5 years to work through the existing pipeline, down from 13.3 years last month; this is a static measure calculated at the current rate.
The expanding pipeline was accompanied by project setbacks: shelved capacity increased by 9.4GW in October, above the 2.2GW in September, bringing the total to 61.1GW, or about 13% of the project pipeline. Shelved projects include those delayed, canceled, denied approval or withdrawn.

Based on the election results, Bernstein estimates that 265GW of projects are located in states where newly elected governors oppose or favor restrictions on data centers, accounting for 57% of the US project pipeline, the same proportion as in its pre-election estimate. This calculation covers US projects and uses a different scope from the 488GW North American pipeline total.
In October, 29 states had imposed restrictions or were advancing legislation to restrict new data centers, up from 27 the previous month. Texas's statewide moratorium remained in effect, and its newly added capacity under construction fell to 0.6GW that month, below 3.4GW in September and 1.9GW in August.
Bernstein believes data center projects bring substantial economic benefits and that new policies are more likely to change who bears construction costs than simply depress growth.

In October, the behind-the-meter (BTM) project pipeline increased by about 17GW, accounting for 54% of the month's total increase, above the year-to-date average of 43%. According to Crusoe, an average BTM data center project can be energized in about 18 months, while the conventional route takes several years.
BTM projects account for only 4% of operating capacity, and respectively 17% and 43% of capacity under construction and the project pipeline. BTM capacity under construction was 15.1GW in October, broadly unchanged month over month.
The expansion of power-supply solutions has also been accompanied by project setbacks: BTM's share of shelved capacity rose from 16% in May to 28% in October, including a 4GW BTM project in Florida that was rejected.

Bernstein believes project construction will support years of growth in the electrification equipment and construction markets, basing its view on demand for equipment and labor, order backlogs and persistent supply bottlenecks.
The bank estimates the potential market size by multiplying the existing project pipeline by the opportunity per megawatt disclosed by each company, assuming 70% of the pipeline consists of AI projects. For example, it estimates approximately 1.76 trillion US dollars for Vertiv and 7.32 trillion US dollars for Quanta Services' construction labor; the two cover different parts of the business chain.
These estimates depend on project progress and the opportunity per unit of capacity; they are not equivalent to orders already secured by suppliers.