Why could DRAM price increases continue into 2028?

  • At an expert meeting hosted by Goldman Sachs, TrendForce forecast that DRAM supply would remain tight throughout 2027: strong server demand and limited additional supply are expected to continue pushing up average selling prices over the next several quarters, even with weak consumer demand.
  • TrendForce expects DRAM prices to continue rising through the first half of 2028. However, long-term agreement coverage could reach 60%–70%, moderating the magnitude of price increases in 2027; additional demand beyond committed volumes can still be negotiated at higher prices.

How will higher HBM prices change industry revenue?

  • TrendForce expects the blended average selling price of HBM to rise 122% year over year to 3.7 dollars per Gb in 2027, driving industry revenue up more than 230% year over year to exceed 200 billion dollars. Goldman Sachs considers this assessment consistent with its own expectations: the bank expects major suppliers’ average HBM prices to rise 100%–160% next year.
  • Prices quoted by different suppliers and to different customers could vary widely: TrendForce expects high-end HBM4 prices next year to exceed 5 dollars per Gb, while prices at the low end approach 3 dollars. Given its substantial price premium, HBM4 is expected to account for nearly 60% of HBM industry revenue in 2027.
  • Demand is also expanding across generations. TrendForce believes the rising share of Google TPUs will continue to support HBM bit demand in the following year, while demand is not concentrated primarily in HBM4 and HBM4E.

Why is aggressive capacity expansion unlikely to ease supply quickly?

  • TrendForce believes that, despite suppliers’ ambitious capital expenditure plans, cleanroom constraints and longer equipment delivery lead times will make it difficult to increase DRAM capacity substantially before 2028.
  • Each Korean supplier could add monthly capacity of 80 thousand–100 thousand wafers in 2027, but Samsung Electronics’ additional capacity is expected to be allocated mainly to HBM. Growth in conventional DRAM bit supply will therefore rely primarily on process technology upgrades.
  • Equipment supply could begin to improve in the second half of 2027, allowing new plants to contribute more substantial supply in 2028; suppliers may also adjust their expansion plans in response to the demand outlook.

How does Goldman Sachs view supplier opportunities and competition?

  • Goldman Sachs reiterated its buy ratings on Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. TrendForce believes that although Chinese HBM suppliers continue to invest in capacity and technology, they still lag leading suppliers considerably in technology and yield, and are expected to have a market share below 2% in 2027.
  • Goldman Sachs cautioned that a significant deterioration in memory supply and demand, weaker smartphone, PC or server demand, and a decline in AI-related capital expenditure could all affect memory demand; progress in Samsung’s HBM business will also affect SK hynix’s HBM revenue and profit.