What do October deliveries mean for the full-year target?

  • Xiaomi disclosed that it delivered over 50 thousand electric vehicles in October 2026. Cumulative deliveries from month 1 through September had previously exceeded 336.5 thousand vehicles, achieving approximately 75% of the company's full-year target of 450 thousand vehicles.
  • Citi forecasts full-year deliveries of 407 thousand vehicles, below the company's target. By the bank's measure, approximately 83% of its full-year forecast had been achieved in the first three quarters.

How are new-vehicle orders and delivery times changing?

  • The company reported that locked-in orders for the SkyNomad exceeded 70 thousand vehicles in the month following its launch, and that 12.4 thousand were delivered in September. Delivery times for most versions of the model are 4–7 weeks, while the Explorer version takes 7–10 weeks.
  • Delivery times for all versions of the YU7 are 4–7 weeks. For the new SU7, the Standard and Max versions take 4–7 weeks, the Pro version takes 5–8 weeks, and the Ultra version is expected to be delivered between month 4 and May of 2027. Waiting times differ markedly among versions.

How does Citi assess the share price and business valuation?

  • Citi expects the third quarter may be Xiaomi's weakest quarter for earnings in 2026. It believes the share price may remain stable in the short term following the third-quarter preview and views the stock as a defensive choice when AI sentiment fades. The bank rates it Buy, with a target price of HK$33.2.
  • The target price uses a sum-of-the-parts approach: the core business is valued at 17.7 times forecast earnings for the second half of 2026 through the first half of 2027, reflecting a smartphone downturn driven by rising memory prices. The smart electric vehicle business is valued at 1.5 times forecast sales for the same period; Citi believes its higher average selling price supports a multiple above those of industry peers.
  • Downside risks listed by Citi include stronger-than-expected smartphone competition, a smaller-than-expected share gained from Huawei, and expense pressure from new-store expansion.