Why have sales declined for two consecutive months?

  • JPMorgan, citing estimates from consumer data provider Numerator, said US at-home food and beverage sales fell year over year in the 13 weeks through September 2026, marking a second consecutive month of year-over-year declines.
  • The main drag was a mid-single-digit percentage decline in purchase frequency year over year. The number of items purchased per trip also fell year over year, a trend that has continued for 12 months. The number of purchasing households continued to grow at a low-single-digit rate year over year, and the amount spent per item kept rising, although its growth slowed slightly from August.
  • The data break sales down into purchasing households, shopping frequency, items per trip and amount spent per item: more households buying and higher spending per item were still insufficient to offset the effect of consumers buying fewer items and shopping less frequently.

How have purchasing patterns changed across income groups?

  • In September, food and beverage purchase rates fell year over year among high-, middle- and low-income households, and performance slowed from earlier levels. Purchase rates among middle- and low-income households performed slightly better than those of high-income households.
  • The share of food and beverage shopping trips using the US Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) was unchanged year over year for a third consecutive month, after declining for more than two years before July. However, the share of SNAP usage at each retailer tracked by JPMorgan continued to decline year over year.
  • According to Numerator's figures for the past 12 months, SNAP was used on 3.5% of all food and beverage shopping trips; the figures for Walmart, BJ's and Kroger were 6.1%, 4.8% and 4.3%, respectively.

Which channels are growing and which are contracting?

  • In the 13 weeks through September, estimated food and beverage sales at discount stores rose 4% year over year, overtaking the online channel to become the fastest-growing channel. Online sales grew 3%, after maintaining double-digit growth in 2024, 2025 and earlier this year.
  • JPMorgan noted that delays in consumers submitting receipts can sometimes cause initial online growth estimates to be understated, but the bank believes the pronounced slowdown remains evident.
  • Estimated sales fell 12% year over year in the drugstore channel and 8% at convenience stores. Convenience stores shifted to negative growth after fuel prices surged this year, while the drugstore channel has been under pressure for years.

How wide is the divergence among retailers?

  • Among the retailers tracked by JPMorgan, estimated food and beverage sales in the 13 weeks through September rose 7% year over year at Trader Joe's and 6% each at Target and Dollar General. At the other end, sales fell 6% at Sam's Club and 4% at Ahold Delhaize.
  • Amazon's estimated sales rose 3%, following 15 consecutive months in which each month's year-over-year growth exceeded 18%. BJ's and Trader Joe's recorded the largest year-over-year increases in purchasing households, although BJ's also saw one of the largest declines in purchase frequency.
  • Pressure on the number of items purchased was widespread: none of the retailers tracked by the bank recorded year-over-year growth in food and beverage items per trip in September, with Sam's Club and Publix seeing the largest declines.