Goldman Sachs: U.S. steel demand grows year over year; mill utilization remains high as imports recover

How solid is demand growth?

In September, U.S. apparent steel demand was 9.02 million short tons, up 5% year over year but down 1.2% month over month; mill shipments during the same period were 7.97 million short tons, down 0.4% year over year and 2% month over month.
From the start of the year through September, cumulative mill shipments were 72.01 million short tons, up 4.8% year over year, largely offsetting the impact of lower imports and lifting apparent demand 1.4% year over year to 78.87 million short tons.
Based on seasonally adjusted data, apparent demand in 2026 currently corresponds to a full-year level of about 104.1 million short tons; Goldman Sachs maintained its full-year forecast of 104.8 million short tons, up 2.6% from 2025.

In September, finished steel imports were 1.66 million short tons, up 40.5% year over year, partly due to the low base in the same period of 2025; however, cumulative imports from the start of the year through September were still down 13.7% year over year.
Flat-rolled imports in September grew 44.2% year over year but rose just 1.1% month over month, a marked slowdown from the month-over-month growth of 37.1% in August. Preliminary licensing data show that flat-rolled imports in October declined 10.7% month over month.
Goldman Sachs believes that policies such as Section 232 tariffs, antidumping and countervailing duties, and CORE tariffs will bring a gradual recovery in flat-rolled imports from low levels. The 50% Section 232 tariffs have also increased importers’ working-capital requirements.

Mill output in September grew 15% year over year, but autumn maintenance and outages brought the capacity utilization rate down to 80.7%, below August’s 81.6%, but still above the five-year historical average of 78%. Goldman Sachs believes this level helps support mill margins.
In the final week of October, U.S. mills’ weekly output rebounded to about 2.05 million short tons, with capacity utilization at about 89%. Goldman Sachs attributed this mainly to increased output at Southern mills and the resumption of operations after seasonal maintenance and planned outages ended.
In late October, average flat-rolled lead times were about 10.5 weeks, approximately 4.6 weeks longer than a year earlier. Goldman Sachs expects longer lead times to continue supporting U.S. domestic steel prices and mill orders, provided imports remain constrained and demand stays resilient.