Goldman Sachs: Kioxia’s fourth-quarter growth slows, but Goldman Sachs remains positive on long-term NAND supply and demand

What drove Kioxia’s third-quarter growth?

Strong demand from data-center and enterprise customers drove a low-double-digit sequential percentage increase in Kioxia’s NAND bit shipments in the third quarter of 2026. Its blended average selling price in U.S. dollars rose about 25% sequentially, while pricing on a like-for-like basis rose slightly more than 30%.
With both volume and prices rising, Kioxia’s quarterly revenue in U.S. dollars grew 39% sequentially, and its operating margin reached 80%, up from 74% in the previous quarter.

Kioxia expects revenue to rise only slightly sequentially in the fourth quarter of 2026, with bit shipments roughly flat and average selling prices rising moderately. Some shipments of products with longer delivery cycles, such as data-center and enterprise SSDs, will shift to the first quarter of 2027.
Goldman Sachs’ table estimates, based on company guidance, that Kioxia’s fourth-quarter revenue will rise 3% sequentially, below the bank’s expectations for NAND revenue growth of 25% at Samsung Electronics and 14% at SK hynix. Goldman Sachs attributes part of the difference to the shift in shipment timing and Kioxia’s relatively high third-quarter base.

Kioxia expects continued strong data-center and enterprise demand to keep NAND supply and demand tight in 2027, with room for average selling prices to rise further. Management also expects the pace of price increases to slow after the rapid rise from early to mid-2026, but currently sees no signs of average selling prices falling.
Goldman Sachs’ forecasts point in a similar direction: NAND prices at Samsung Electronics and SK hynix will rise 34% and 30% year on year, respectively, in 2027, below the bank’s forecast increases of 279% and 254% for 2026.

Kioxia says its 2027 capacity is essentially sold out, and more than half of its 2028 shipments are secured under multiyear long-term agreements. The company is considering contracting out the remaining 2028 capacity or retaining some to capture potential upside.
Kioxia has begun discussing supply for 2029–2030 with customers. Goldman Sachs has also observed customers of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix signing five-year long-term agreements and requesting longer supply periods. The bank believes this indicates an increased likelihood that supply shortages will persist longer, and it maintains buy ratings on Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.