Original source：光大证券、中信建投、国信证券、东方证券First published on Unhidea：Original source date：
Key takeaway
Of the four themes, the rise in fiber-optic prices is supported by supply and demand data, the opportunity for cloth-free PCBs depends on rack shipments, hotel valuations depend on platform monetization, and tire price increases face cost and tariff pressures.
Why has the fiber-optic industry shifted from price wars to price increases?
Growing demand for computing power has met slow expansion of optical preform capacity. The report says preforms account for approximately 70% of profits across the fiber-optic value chain, and expanding capacity takes 1.5 to 2 years; Chinese production is already running at full capacity, high-margin AI fiber is taking up capacity, and production of conventional fiber has been forced down.
The average price of A2 preforms rose from 22–30 yuan per equivalent fiber-kilometer at the start of 2025 to 160 yuan in mid-2026; G.657.A2 fiber rose from 32 yuan per fiber-kilometer in 2025 to 240 yuan in April 2026. Fiber-optic cabling volumes in AI computing centers are several times, and sometimes more than ten times, those in conventional settings.
Co-packaged optics switches use polarization-maintaining fiber internally, which could increase demand for high-margin specialty fiber. The report forecasts that the polarization-maintaining fiber market will grow from 2.2 billion yuan in 2025 to 4.4 billion yuan in 2032; whether companies benefit depends on their preform capacity and positioning in specialty fiber.
What determines the opportunity for cloth-free PCBs?
As rack interconnect speeds increase, differences between the dielectric constants of glass fiber cloth and resin can cause deviations in high-speed signal transmission. Removing the glass fiber cloth can improve material uniformity, making switch boards a potential entry point for cloth-free copper-clad laminates and prepregs.
CITIC Securities Construction Investment forecasts shipments of 500 VR300 NVL576 racks in 2027 and 6000 in 2028, corresponding to cloth-free PCB market opportunities of approximately 10.6 billion yuan and 112.5 billion yuan, respectively, and approximately 160 billion yuan in 2029. Fully cloth-free solutions could be adopted first; if mass-production supply or processing reliability proves insufficient, solutions containing Q cloth could serve as an alternative.
More of the value from the material upgrade is concentrated in the manufacture of copper-clad laminates and prepregs: the report forecasts that the unit price of M10-grade copper-clad laminate will be approximately 2.7 times that of M8, while PCB manufacturers mainly handle processing adaptation, limiting the relative profit uplift from going cloth-free.
Why can overseas hotel groups command higher valuations?
Guosen Securities believes brands, membership programs and asset-light fees provide hotel groups with platform-type revenue. From 2023 to October 2026, Hilton and Marriott had average forward EV/EBITDA multiples of 17.9 and 16.0, respectively, higher than in 2010–2019; valuations remain subject to the cycle.
Membership networks can also be monetized beyond room bookings: Marriott’s credit-card branding fees rose from 410 million US dollars in 2019 to 716 million US dollars in 2025. Its franchise fees increased by 212 million US dollars from 2024 to 2025, of which approximately 105 million US dollars came from growth in credit-card and other branding fees.
China’s hotel chain penetration rate was 41.8% in 2025, below the US rate of 73%; the report says Huazhu and Atour trade around valuation multiples of 8–12, below the 15–20 range for leading overseas peers. Guosen Securities believes supply consolidation and brand upgrades provide room for a medium-term re-rating of domestic leaders.
Why do tire price increases still struggle to offset cost pressures?
As of the report date, natural rubber and styrene-butadiene rubber prices had risen 25.49% and 38.86%, respectively, from the end of the previous year, while the mainstream price adjustments announced by several tire companies since September ranged from 2% to 5%. Zhongce Rubber’s revenue grew 6.57% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, but net profit attributable to the parent fell 65.29%, weighed down by costs and exchange rates.
Export improvement and trade pressures coexist: China’s tire export volume rose 8.40% year on year in September, and the average price rose 3.89% year on year to a monthly high for the year; the EU’s combined anti-dumping and countervailing duty rates on Chinese passenger-car and light-truck tires were disclosed at 27.50%–57.09% ahead of the final determination.
Orient Securities believes leading companies can pass on some costs through product price increases and use overseas bases to reduce trade risks; this assessment depends on their overseas capacity and ability to pass on costs.
