NextEra’s third-quarter earnings beat expectations; project backlog supports growth as capital spending continues to rise

Third-quarter results beat expectations: where did growth come from?

NextEra’s adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter of 2026 were 1.24 dollars, up about 10% year on year, 5% above HSBC’s estimate and 2% above the market consensus. Both major businesses, as well as corporate and other activities, performed better than HSBC expected.
Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) reported earnings per share of 0.77 dollars, up about 8% year on year, primarily driven by new investments; regulated capital employed at quarter-end rose about 9.2% year on year to 81.1 billion dollars. NextEra Energy Resources (NEER) reported earnings per share of 0.59 dollars, up about 11% year on year, with new investments also the main driver.
Despite strong performance in the first three quarters, the company maintained its full-year earnings-per-share growth guidance: at the upper end of a range of approximately 8% growth from the 2025 base. The company expects El Niño to affect fourth-quarter wind generation and assumes output at 90%–95% of the historical average.

NEER added approximately 3.7 GW of generation and storage projects to its backlog in the third quarter, including 2.4 GW of battery storage; the total backlog reached approximately 36.7 GW at quarter-end.
Of that total, 21.6 GW consists of projects for 2026–2027, supporting NEER’s target of adding approximately 20–27 GW of renewable energy during that period. For its 2026–2029 target of 44.6–61.6 GW, more than two-thirds is already in the backlog or in commercial operation.
FPL maintained its expectation of adding 8 GW of large-load demand by 2032 and is confident it will announce a large-load deal in 2026. NEER has also advanced more than 20 GW of large-load projects, including 18 GW of gas-fired generation projects.
During the year, NEER signed definitive agreements for approximately 16.5 GW of federal hub projects and secured approximately 5.7 billion dollars in funding; the company builds and operates these projects for a fee.

HSBC expects US electricity demand to grow 50% over the next 10 years, driven by demand from data centers and other sources. The bank believes NextEra can meet that demand through its regulated power business and NEER’s generation, storage and transmission solutions.
The company maintained its target of annual earnings-per-share growth of more than approximately 8% through 2035 on a standalone basis. HSBC considers the target conservative and expects NEER to add more than 14 GW of gas-fired and renewable energy capacity annually in 2026–2032.
Expansion also means sustained investment. HSBC’s model forecasts capital spending rising from approximately 20.1 billion dollars in 2025 to approximately 24.8 billion dollars in 2026 and approximately 32.8 billion dollars in 2028; funds generated from operations grow over the same period but remain below capital spending, and net debt in the model also rises.

The merger between NextEra and Dominion was approved by both companies’ shareholders in September 2026. The company expects state regulators to approve it in the first quarter of 2027 and maintains its expectation that the transaction will close in the second half of 2027.
The company said that, with Dominion included, its long-term compound annual earnings-per-share growth target increases from more than approximately 8% on a standalone basis to more than approximately 9%. HSBC believes the merger will further strengthen NextEra’s ability to benefit from growth in electricity demand.
HSBC maintained its Buy rating and target price of 103 dollars per share, approximately 25.8% above the 22 October 2026 closing price of 81.90 dollars. The bank noted that project execution delays, changes in competition or regulation, and regulatory obstacles to transmission construction could limit growth.