How large was the third-quarter earnings beat?

  • OPT's revenue in the third quarter of 2026 was 482 million yuan, up 46% year on year and 12% above Goldman Sachs' forecast. Operating profit was 65 million yuan, up 122% year on year and 77% above its forecast. Goldman Sachs attributed the beat mainly to stronger-than-expected growth in semiconductor manufacturing inspection and industrial AI deployment projects.
  • Net profit was 61 million yuan, up 67% year on year and 47% above Goldman Sachs' forecast. Compared with the second quarter, however, third-quarter revenue fell 12%, net profit fell 43%, and the operating margin declined from 22% to 13%.
  • The third-quarter gross margin was 57%, down 1 percentage point year on year. Operating expenses rose 25% over the same period, less than the 46% increase in revenue, driving a year-on-year increase of 5 percentage points in the operating margin.

Where is semiconductor and industrial AI growth coming from?

  • Semiconductor and optical module revenue was 94 million yuan in the third quarter, up 265% year on year and accounting for 19% of company revenue for the quarter. Management expects the business to generate more than 250 million yuan in revenue in 2026, with a second-half target of more than 100 million yuan for optical modules, compared with 20 million yuan in the first half.
  • Semiconductor orders during the year came mainly from passive spillover resulting from industry capacity expansion. The company plans to pursue customers more actively from the fourth quarter. Management is focusing on optical modules and high-density PCB inspection, targeting business revenue of more than 400 million yuan in 2027.
  • AI applications generated revenue of 301 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2026, up 157% year on year. Management raised its 2027 target for AI-related revenue to 600 million yuan. The company has accumulated more than 100 million industrial defect samples; automated annotation and generative defect modeling have helped shorten deployment cycles in new customer industries from 15 days to 1–2 days.
  • Robot vision sensor modules are already generating commercial revenue. Consumer-grade 3D vision products remain at the early prototype stage, with 4–5 trial customers and no material revenue to date.

When can consumer electronics drive growth again?

  • Consumer electronics revenue was 593 million yuan in the first three quarters, down 1% year on year. Third-quarter revenue was 167 million yuan, up 3% year on year and accounting for 35% of total revenue for the quarter. Management expects a seasonal slowdown in the fourth quarter and roughly flat full-year revenue.
  • Management targets consumer electronics revenue growth of more than 50% year on year in 2027, based on an expected approximately 30% year-on-year increase in customer capital expenditure on new manufacturing processes, gains in the company's share, and a target to double consumer electronics AI revenue.
  • Management expects a rebound in high-margin consumer electronics, expansion of the semiconductor business and a further decline in the expense ratio to improve margins in 2027. Goldman Sachs also identified excessive reliance on the consumer electronics industry or a single customer, and competition-driven declines in prices and margins, as major downside risks.

Why did Goldman Sachs raise its target price while maintaining a neutral rating?

  • Taking into account third-quarter results and an optimistic outlook for growth in 2027, Goldman Sachs raised its earnings-per-share forecasts for 2026–2030 by 7%–11%, raised its 12-month target price from 105 yuan to 115.9 yuan, and maintained its neutral rating.
  • The target price uses an unchanged 2027 forecast price-to-earnings multiple of 35 times, discounted at a cost of equity of 11.5%. The share price listed in the report was 148.48 yuan, with the target price 21.9% below it.