Goldman Sachs: Memory chip price increases diverge as PC supply tightens and smartphone and NAND buyers grow cautious

Why are PC memory prices rising faster than Goldman Sachs expected?

TrendForce expects PC DRAM contract prices to rise 13%–18% quarter on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2026, above Goldman Sachs’ forecast of 8%–13% for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.
A contraction in supply is a supporting factor: TrendForce expects Korean suppliers’ PC DRAM output to fall by more than 20% year on year in 2027 as capacity shifts to server memory. But demand is also under pressure, and some device manufacturers have already lowered their procurement plans for the fourth quarter of 2026 and for 2027.
In October, the average price of an 8GB DDR4 module rose 15% to 170 dollars, while a DDR5 module reached 165 dollars; DDR5’s discount to DDR4 narrowed from 10% in September to 3%.

TrendForce maintains its forecast that server DRAM prices will rise 10%–15% quarter on quarter in the fourth quarter, broadly in line with Goldman Sachs’ expectation of an average price increase of 11% for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.
Driven by stronger computing demand from emerging US cloud providers such as xAI, TrendForce raised its 2026 server shipment growth forecast from 17.0% to 19.7% and modestly increased its shipment forecast for 2027.
Among 64GB server modules in October, DDR4 and DDR5 prices rose 15% and 11%, respectively, to 1490 dollars and 1685 dollars; DDR5’s premium over DDR4 fell from 17% in September to 13%.

TrendForce expects smartphone DRAM prices to rise 0%–5% quarter on quarter in the fourth quarter, close to Goldman Sachs’ forecast of 3%. Smartphone brands stocked up aggressively over the previous three quarters while lowering their full-year production targets, weakening their appetite for additional purchases.
TrendForce expects TLC eMMC and UFS prices to rise 4%–9% and 5%–7%, respectively, quarter on quarter in the fourth quarter, slightly below Goldman Sachs’ forecast of a 7%–10% increase in average NAND prices for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.
High inventories and rising costs are increasing buyers’ resistance to price increases, and purchasing is shifting toward Chinese suppliers with more moderate price increases. TrendForce expects price momentum to slow further in the first quarter of 2027 amid weak consumer demand, inventory drawdowns and new NAND capacity.

Goldman Sachs reiterated its buy ratings on Samsung Electronics and SK hynix; Samsung Electronics is also on its Conviction Buy list.
The bank said a significant deterioration in memory supply and demand would affect its assessment of both companies. For SK hynix, weaker smartphone, PC and server demand, along with a decline in AI-related capital spending, are also significant risks.