Bernstein: Lasertec raises full-year order guidance, but first-quarter results fall sharply short of expectations

How much was order guidance raised?

Lasertec raised its order guidance for the fiscal year ending in June 2027 from 300 billion–400 billion yen to 400 billion–500 billion yen. The midpoint of 450 billion yen is nearly twice the previous fiscal year’s 237 billion yen.
Bernstein’s previous expectation, based on discussions with buy-side investors, was 400 billion–450 billion yen. The company said lead times for both A200 and Matrics have approached a year and a half, and orders could exceed the top end of guidance if customers expedite or place orders early.

The company said more than sixty percent of the increase in guidance came from forecasts of repeat A200 orders, made before evaluations were completed. Customers expressed satisfaction with its performance and throughput; new orders came from multiple customers for volume production rather than evaluation.
The order outlook for Matrics is also stronger than it was three months ago, and the company now expects its order value to reach at least twice the previous year’s level.

In the first quarter of fiscal 2027, Lasertec reported revenue of 40.4 billion yen, down 25.5% year over year and 33.1% below market consensus; operating profit was 15.8 billion yen, down 41.0% year over year and 40.5% below consensus.
By business, semiconductor-related product revenue fell 42.9% year over year to 23.8 billion yen, while service revenue rose 31.2% to 16 billion yen. The company said the weak first-quarter profit and loss results were in line with its own expectations and reiterated its full-year outlook.
The company explained that its full-year operating margin guidance of 43% is weighed down by a one-time gross margin impact on Matrics machines: the product is undergoing a software upgrade using better GPUs to improve image resolution. The company expects the impact to be limited to this fiscal year and margins to normalize from the next fiscal year.

Reflecting the improved order outlook, Bernstein raised its order forecasts for fiscal 2027 and 2028 by 33% and 77%, respectively, and its fiscal 2029 earnings-per-share forecast by about 19%. However, following the actual first-quarter results, the firm cut its fiscal 2027 revenue forecast by 3.8% and its earnings-per-share forecast by 6.5%.
Bernstein raised its price target from 54000 yen to 56000 yen and maintained its Outperform rating. The firm applies a price-to-earnings multiple of 35 times to forecast earnings per share for quarters 5 through 8 ahead, below the 40 times previously used; the target is about 49% above the 37700 yen closing price cited in the report.