How is the US EV market recovering, and how are Ultium models performing?

  • In October 2026, US all-electric vehicle sales were approximately 84 thousand units, up 15% year over year and 5% quarter over quarter, returning to growth after facing a high year-ago comparison base.
  • During the same period, sales of General Motors’ Ultium-platform all-electric vehicles were 8169 units, down 24% year over year and up 5% quarter over quarter. Including the 1241 Honda Prologue units, total Ultium-platform sales were 9410 units, down 18% year over year and up just 1% quarter over quarter.
  • Morgan Stanley noted that although year-over-year comparisons will become easier in the future, Ultium-platform sales remain at around 9000 units per month, with limited signs of a meaningful recovery.

Which models supported sales in October?

  • Sales of most General Motors Ultium models remained lower year over year in October. BrightDrop was the exception, though its growth was accompanied by inventory drawdown. The two BrightDrop models sold a combined 1334 units that month.
  • The quarter-over-quarter improvement in platform sales was uneven: sales of General Motors’ Ultium models rose 5%, while Honda Prologue sales fell from 1540 units in September to 1241 units in October. The General Motors sales figures exclude the Bolt, which is not part of the Ultium platform.

What other growth signals are there for LG Energy Solution?

  • Rivian R2, equipped with LG Energy Solution’s 46-series batteries, sold 1829 units in October and has become Rivian’s best-selling EV model, offering another indication of demand for the company’s batteries.
  • Morgan Stanley expects growth in LG Energy Solution’s energy storage business to accelerate and its EV business to bottom, while the pace of margin recovery is likely to remain relatively gradual.

How does Morgan Stanley value the company?

  • The firm maintained its Equal-weight rating on LG Energy Solution, with a price target of 410 thousand won; the closing price on 3 November was 338 thousand won. The price target is based on its 2027 EBITDA forecast and an enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple of 16.5 times, two standard deviations below the historical average since 2022.
  • Factors affecting the assessment include EV sales and penetration, capacity adjustments by competitors, LG Energy Solution’s market share, benefits from the US advanced manufacturing production tax credit, and battery recalls.