Bernstein: Basic-Fit membership growth supports cash flow improvement, but club opening guidance remains unchanged

What supported third-quarter growth?

Basic-Fit’s third-quarter revenue was approximately €417 million, up 17% year on year and broadly in line with expectations. Membership grew 14.5% year on year to 5.42 million, exceeding Bernstein’s forecast; average monthly revenue per member rose 1.4% year on year to €25.64.
At quarter-end, clubs had an average of 3,035 members, up from 2,902 at the end of 2025. Bernstein believes that newly opened clubs gradually maturing and attracting more members helps improve operating leverage; management reiterated its confidence in reaching 3,200 members per club over the long term.
Revenue for the first nine months of the year grew 18% year on year to €1.22 billion. Bernstein believes growth slowed slightly from the previous year mainly because slower club openings in 2023–2025 reduced the contribution of network expansion to growth.

Management maintained its guidance for a net increase of 50 Basic-Fit branded clubs in 2026, even though the target had already been met in the first three quarters. The market had previously expected a modest increase; unchanged guidance implies limited scope for net club openings in the fourth quarter.
Of the 51 Basic-Fit branded clubs added in the first three quarters, 45 were organic net additions and another 6 were rebranded existing Clever Fit clubs. Bernstein believes the actual pace of organic expansion was therefore slightly weaker than the headline figure suggests.
The company also maintained its full-year guidance for revenue of €1.64 billion to €1.69 billion and underlying EBITDA less rent of €430 million to €460 million. The first franchised Basic-Fit branded club is expected to open before year-end.

Basic-Fit generated €26.1 million in free cash flow in 2025. Bernstein expects it to rise to €144 million in 2026 and further to €180.7 million in 2027; the firm believes the market underestimates the scale of the improvement.
The model forecasts capital expenditure falling from €278 million in 2025 to €200.9 million in 2026, while underlying EBITDA less rent rises from €348.3 million to €447.9 million. Rising membership density at more mature clubs is an important reason for the firm’s positive outlook on subsequent revenue and earnings growth.
Bernstein maintained its outperform rating and €48 price target; the closing price on 2 November listed in the report was €30. Its target price uses a discounted cash flow method, assuming a weighted average cost of capital of 10.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 2%.

The company plans to launch the Basic-Fit brand in Austria in summer 2027, rebranding its 33 owned Clever Fit clubs and 18 Speedfit clubs following completion of the transaction, for a total of 51. According to the comparison in the report, this would make it the country’s second-largest fitness chain.
Austria prohibits fitness operators from charging or adjusting administrative fees. Bernstein expects revenue per member there may be slightly lower than in mature markets, but the impact on the group’s average revenue per member will be limited because Austrian clubs account for a small share of the group’s network.
Addressing concerns that AI financial management tools could prompt inactive members to cancel subscriptions, management said members who had not visited a club for at least six months represented slightly more than 10% of total membership, and that the proportion had fallen significantly in recent years. Bernstein believes these members will gradually leave through normal churn, and most members’ initial contract terms are also 12 months, so the additional impact may be limited.