Bernstein: CATL’s global battery share continues to rise as automakers diversify procurement

Why is global share still growing as automakers switch suppliers?

In the first 8 months of 2026, CATL’s global electric-vehicle battery installations rose 24% year over year to 271 GWh, outpacing the global market’s 14% growth; its cumulative market share reached 38%.
Overseas markets were the main source of growth: installations outside China rose 43% year over year to 120 GWh, while those markets grew 24%; installations in China rose 12% to 150 GWh, also exceeding domestic market growth of 6%.
Bernstein therefore believes that the impact of procurement diversification by individual automakers is currently being offset by CATL’s global expansion. However, its share in China’s best-selling electric-vehicle models has fallen from its early-2026 peak, making domestic competitive pressure more evident.

Chery is one example: CATL’s share of Chery’s battery procurement declined both in China and overseas, but growth in Chery’s overseas demand added approximately 6 GWh of installations, exceeding the decline in China and driving an increase in CATL’s global installations for Chery.
There are offsets among customers as well. In the first 8 months of 2026, CATL’s share of battery supply to SAIC and Li Auto in China rose by 17 percentage points each year over year, while its shares at BAIC, Chery and Tesla fell by 29, 22 and 20 percentage points, respectively.
Outside China, its supply shares at Hyundai-Kia and Toyota rose by 15 and 12 percentage points, respectively, while those at VinFast and Chery fell by 21 and 13 percentage points, respectively. A change in share at one customer needs to be considered alongside the scale of that customer’s demand and changes at other customers.

Li Auto, Xiaomi and Leapmotor are expanding their options by developing batteries in-house or with partners and adding other suppliers. At the same time, CATL has strengthened cooperation with automakers including Volkswagen and NIO. Bernstein believes the existing evidence points more to procurement diversification than to automakers completely removing CATL from their supply chains.
After rising from the end of 2025, CATL’s share of battery supply to its five largest customers remained broadly stable at 50%–60% in 2026; its supply share among the five largest automakers by global electric-vehicle sales, excluding BYD, was approximately 40%–45%.
The shares of CATL’s total installations attributable to Geely, Volkswagen, Tesla, Changan and Xiaomi have each gradually declined, but CATL’s supply shares at these customers have remained broadly stable. This means its customer base is more diversified, while major customers still account for a substantial proportion of its battery supply.

Bernstein believes that battery procurement diversification by some automakers remains a risk, but there is currently a lack of evidence of a structural deterioration in CATL’s overall competitive position. The firm maintains its outperform ratings on CATL’s A-shares and H-shares, with price targets of 480 yuan and 460 Hong Kong dollars, respectively.
In the firm’s financial model, revenue is forecast to rise 51.8% year over year in 2026, while the operating margin falls from 16.7% in 2025 to 14.5%; revenue is forecast to grow a further 27.2% in 2027, with the operating margin falling further to 10.4%. Installation growth and margin changes need to be assessed separately.