More than half of XCMG Machinery’s revenue comes from overseas. What growth opportunities can green mining equipment unlock?
Overseas revenue rose to 50.48% of XCMG Machinery’s total in the first half of 2026, making overseas business an important buffer against domestic cycles. Great Wall Securities is optimistic about the structural upgrade brought by electrification and autonomous operation of mining equipment, with complete equipment offerings and overseas order expansion serving as the key links.
Original source：长城证券First published on Unhidea：Original source date：
Key takeaway
Great Wall Securities is optimistic about XCMG Machinery’s expansion from a full range of construction machinery into green mining equipment: the rising share of overseas revenue has changed its business structure, while orders for electrified and autonomous equipment provide a basis for further profitability improvement.
What changes when overseas revenue exceeds half of the total?
The share of XCMG Machinery’s revenue generated overseas rose from 29.67% in 2022 to 48.20% in 2025, and reached 50.48% in the first half of 2026. Overseas business has moved from a supplementary source of revenue to the main source, reducing the company’s operating dependence on the domestic construction machinery cycle.
The change is also evident in scale and profitability: overseas revenue in the first half of 2026 was 30.917 billion yuan, up 21.03% year on year, while the overseas gross margin rose to 24.76%. The company has established more than 50 overseas subsidiaries and a network of over 300 dealers, providing a channel base for expanding overseas sales.
The material lists the company’s global market share at 5.3%, compared with 16.8% for Caterpillar. On this basis, Great Wall Securities sees room for share gains; the gap indicates the scope of the addressable market, while actual growth still depends on whether products and channels can be converted into sales.
Domestic demand is recovering. Why does equipment replacement still matter?
Domestic excavator sales reached 100.5 thousand units in 2024, up 11.7% year on year, and rose further to 118.5 thousand units in 2025. But the report characterizes the industry’s shift as one from incremental expansion to clearing existing stock, with growth driven more by replacement demand after old equipment is retired.
Exports of used excavators reached 229 thousand units in 2024, exceeding domestic demand for new machines for the first time; together with the China IV emissions standard and interest subsidies on equipment replacement loans, this has accelerated the retirement of old equipment. Non-excavator categories also improved: truck crane sales grew year on year for consecutive months from 9 through December in 2025, and the company has risen to first place in the industry by domestic revenue.
How does green mining equipment connect revenue growth with improved profitability?
Following the absorption and merger of XCMG Limited and the resulting listing of the overall business, the injection of high-margin excavator and mining equipment assets improved the profitability mix. The mining equipment segment generated 9.377 billion yuan in revenue in 2025, up 23.83% year on year; in the first half of 2026, revenue from new-energy mining equipment grew 42.78% and revenue from intelligent products grew 406.49%, indicating that product upgrades are becoming a source of growth.
The company has achieved fleet operations with a hundred pure-electric autonomous mining trucks and signed a supply contract with Fortescue for 150–200 pure-electric mining trucks with a 240-tonne capacity. The former demonstrates fleet operating capability; the latter connects green mining equipment expansion to a specific overseas customer and procurement scale. The signed contract and the fleet already in operation are at different stages.
The business path favored by Great Wall Securities is to use complete electrified and autonomous solutions to drive global expansion and raise overseas profitability. Its view that both earnings and valuation can rise rests on the combined progress of a higher share of high-margin assets, overseas business expansion and mining equipment upgrades.
