Goldman Sachs: Uber’s third-quarter profit beats expectations; insufficient international ride supply weighs on growth

Which businesses supported third-quarter results?

Uber’s third-quarter Bookings totaled $59.819 billion, broadly in line with market consensus; revenue was $14.766 billion, above the market expectation of $14.673 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $2.963 billion, also above consensus of $2.921 billion.
Mobility revenue was $7.52 billion, below the market expectation of $7.705 billion; Delivery Bookings grew 23% year over year, with grocery and retail growing about 40%, supporting quarterly performance.

Management said higher fuel costs in some countries, local labor conditions and competition for drivers had tightened supply, causing third-quarter international Mobility growth to fall short of the company’s expectations; the overall Mobility growth trend improved in October.
To increase driver availability, the company plans to step up investment in driver recruitment and retention in the fourth quarter, which management expects will affect Mobility’s take rate. Goldman Sachs accordingly lowered its fourth-quarter Mobility take-rate forecast from 25.0% to 24.4%.
The conflict in the Middle East also weighed on growth in Mobility Bookings: the impact in the third quarter was 0.75 percentage points, and management’s fourth-quarter outlook assumes the drag will widen to 1 percentage points.

Delivery usage frequency reached a record high, partly benefiting from Uber One memberships and merchant investment; rising grocery and retail penetration has also added consumer occasions beyond restaurants to the platform.
Monthly active platform consumers reached a record 215 million in the third quarter, up 14% year over year; average monthly usage frequency increased 2%. Management highlighted members’ cross-platform usage and lifetime value, while annualized advertising and promotions spending by Delivery merchants has exceeded $10 billion.

Uber management expects the number of autonomous vehicles to rise from 700 at the end of 2026 to 2000 at the end of 2027. Goldman Sachs believes the balance between future capital returns, long-term investment and external capital allocation related to autonomous vehicles will be a key focus for investors.
Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating and 110 price target, citing platform expansion, cross-selling and improving profitability, while also pointing to risks from autonomous vehicle competition, competition in Mobility and Delivery, and driver regulation. The firm slightly lowered its 2027 non-GAAP EPS forecast from $4.35 to $4.33.