Original source：Morgan StanleyFirst published on Unhidea：Original source date：
Key takeaway
AI remains JCET's main growth driver, and advanced packaging capacity expansion is proceeding as planned, but moving the 2.5D business from commercial production to larger-scale mass production will take time and requires customer certification.
Which sources of demand are supporting growth and gross margin?
Management says demand from AI data centers, automotive and industrial applications is strong, and AI remains the main growth driver; by contrast, smartphone-related demand is relatively weak.
The company expects gross margin to remain stable or improve, supported by price increases. Price adjustments in 2026 reflect both the pass-through of costs and supply-demand conditions.
Will tight HBM supply slow capacity expansion?
Management believes that constrained high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supply will have limited impact on the ramp-up of advanced packaging capacity, and expansion remains on schedule.
The company expects HBM supply constraints to ease gradually as sourcing becomes more diversified and customers flexibly adopt different packaging configurations.
When will advanced packaging translate into business revenue?
Based on customer forecasts, the company expects 2.5D packaging at its overseas plant to enter commercial production in the first quarter of 2027, with a target of a larger-scale ramp-up in 2028. The domestic plant will follow, depending on customer certification.
Management expects Jiangyin JME to generate several billion yuan in revenue by 2027.
What is the progress in optical packaging, and what is the institutional assessment?
JCET has completed technical preparations for mass production of co-packaged optics (CPO); adoption of near-packaged optics (NPO) is progressing faster than CPO.
Morgan Stanley rates JCET Overweight, with a target price of 90.20 yuan; the report lists the closing price on 27 October 2026 as 53.29 yuan. The bank cites the timing of advanced packaging launches and changes in market share as factors affecting its assessment.
