J.P. Morgan: Dupixent drives upward revisions to Sanofi earnings expectations, while asset sales weigh on 2027 revenue growth

How much were earnings expectations raised after the third-quarter results?

JPMorgan raised its revenue forecasts for Sanofi for 2026–2032 by about 3%–6%, and its core EPS forecasts by about 2%–6%. Its 2026 core EPS forecast rose from 8.71 euros to 9.08 euros, about 5% above the Vara consensus.
The bank expects revenue growth of about 15% and core EPS growth of about 17% in 2026 on a constant-currency basis, both at the upper end of the corresponding company guidance ranges.

Following the third-quarter performance, JPMorgan expects Dupixent sales to reach 20.5 billion euros in 2026 and exceed 25 billion euros in 2028, two years ahead of Sanofi’s medium-term target.
This view already takes into account a return to normal pricing in 2027. Dupixent is also the main support for the bank’s higher forecasts for the company’s overall revenue and earnings; if its sales growth slows, Sanofi’s EPS growth could lag the sector further.

JPMorgan expects the sale of mature brands such as Lovenox to Cheplapharm to create a 1.3 billion-euro headwind to Sanofi’s revenue in 2027, lowering revenue growth by about 2.5 percentage points.
After factoring in this impact, the bank expects the company’s 2027 constant-currency revenue growth guidance to be in the low-to-mid single digits; supported by continued margin expansion, core EPS growth guidance could reach the mid-to-high single digits.
The bank itself expects core EPS to grow 6% in 2027 on a constant-currency basis, reaching 9.85 euros, about 7% above the Vara consensus before the third-quarter results; part of the gap reflects the bank’s higher forecast for the 2026 earnings base.

JPMorgan maintains its Neutral rating and its December 2027 target price of 95 euros, with valuation based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.5 times on 2027 estimates, including 3 euros per share attributable to the 47.8% Opella stake that has not yet been sold.
The bank believes that although Sanofi’s medium-term core EPS growth is in line with the sector, a valuation discount of about 35% to the sector remains justified until its pipeline makes progress. Failures of pipeline candidates such as frexalimab or riliprubart could deepen concerns about long-term growth.
JPMorgan is watching the investor update in December 2026 and expects the company to update its medium- and long-term growth roadmap then.