Goldwind’s third-quarter revenue and profit both fall. Can overseas orders support a recovery?
Wind turbine sales fell year on year and gross margin declined quarter on quarter, but overseas orders on hand continued to grow. Nomura cut its earnings forecasts and target price, while still expecting a greater share of overseas business to support a recovery in turbine margins.
Original source：Nomura International (Hong Kong) Ltd.First published on Unhidea：Original source date：
Key takeaway
Nomura believes Goldwind’s overseas orders could support a recovery in revenue and margins in 2027, but project delays, rising costs and uncertainty over domestic onshore wind demand have weighed on near-term earnings and valuation expectations.
What changed in third-quarter operations?
In the third quarter of 2026, Goldwind reported revenue of 18.3 billion yuan, down 6.8% year on year and broadly flat quarter on quarter. Nomura believes the revenue decline may be related to a 15% year-on-year drop in turbine sales to 6.6 gigawatts in the quarter; sales rose 5% quarter on quarter.
Net profit for the quarter was 1.02 billion yuan, down 7% year on year and up 7.7% quarter on quarter. Gross margin was 14.5%, up 1.5 percentage points year on year but down 2.3 percentage points quarter on quarter. Nomura believes changes in the revenue mix and rising costs of materials such as blades may have caused the sequential decline.
Why have overseas orders become a support for recovery?
At the end of the third quarter, the company had 55.1 gigawatts of external orders on hand, up 10% year on year and 8% quarter on quarter. Overseas orders accounted for 11 gigawatts, up 16% quarter on quarter. Nomura believes these orders will help support revenue growth and margin recovery in 2027.
Nomura expects the share of overseas sales to rise from 15% in 2025 to 20% in 2026, reaching 24% in 2028. The bank believes generally stable turbine prices, an improved customer mix and a greater overseas contribution will help turbine business margins continue to recover.
Order conversion remains subject to project progress: management expects overseas shipments to grow by a double-digit percentage in 2027, while noting recent delays to some projects, including in the Middle East.
How do domestic demand and costs constrain growth?
According to company data, domestic turbine tender volume fell 10.4% year on year to 91.5 gigawatts in the first three quarters of 2026. Management expects the full-year figure to be around 120 gigawatts, unchanged from the previous year.
Nomura cut its earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by approximately 9.1%—9.2%, respectively. The reasons include lower expected turbine sales due to recent project delays, rising upstream material and component costs, and lower investment income from the development business as returns on wind farm projects decline.
Why did Nomura cut its target price but maintain its buy rating?
Nomura lowered its target price from HK$18 to HK$10, mainly reflecting uncertainty over domestic onshore wind demand, while maintaining its buy rating. The new target price is based on forecast earnings per share of 1.12 yuan for 2027 and a price-to-earnings multiple of 7.6 times, compared with the previous multiple of 17 times.
The bank expects turbine business margins to trend upward overall in 2026—2028 and believes the contribution from the green methanol business will grow over the long term. Relative to the closing price of HK$6.94 on 26 October 2026 cited in the report, the new target price implies approximately 44% upside.
