New 5G base station additions rebound: why is the full-year total still shrinking?

  • In September 2026, China added 59 thousand 5G base stations, up from 41 thousand in August and unchanged from September a year earlier. The improvement came from a rebound in the monthly deployment pace; additions have yet to return to year-on-year growth.
  • Cumulative additions in the first 9 months reached 416 thousand, below the 454 thousand added in the same period of 2025, but already 77% of Goldman Sachs' full-year forecast, ahead of the 71% reached at the same point a year earlier. Faster progress and fewer additions coexist because the full-year baseline has fallen: Goldman Sachs expects 540 thousand additions in 2026, about 8% fewer than the 588 thousand in 2025.
  • Equipment production was weaker: China's communications base station output fell 51% year on year in September, a deeper decline than the 15% in August. Deployment rebounded while production contracted, and the industry's supply chain segments did not improve in tandem.

Optical cable exports are strong: why also look at overall production?

  • China's optical cable export volume was 4,867 tonnes in September, up from 3,978 tonnes in August. It rose 52% year on year, accelerating from 30% in August. Goldman Sachs sees this as evidence of rising overseas demand, with both year-on-year and month-on-month data supporting export growth.
  • The value of optical cable exports in US dollars rose 561% year on year in the same month, far outpacing export volume. The expansion in export value differed markedly from growth in physical shipments, so volume and value need to be assessed separately when measuring demand.
  • However, China's optical cable output fell 22% year on year in September, weakening further from a 7% decline in August. Goldman Sachs regards output as a key indicator covering domestic and overseas shipments, so the bright spot in exports and the contraction in overall production need to be considered together: the industry shows a divergence between domestic and overseas markets.

Which segments are supported by improving overseas demand?

  • Export indicators for electronic materials and circuit boards were strong: the average export price of copper-clad laminates rose 116% year on year and 14% month on month in September; PCB export value rose 74% year on year, and net export value rose 113%, above the 60% growth rate in August. The copper-clad laminate figure reflects a price change, while the PCB figures reflect changes in trade value; they cannot be combined and interpreted as shipment growth.
  • Base station exports were in a different position: in September, export volume fell 56% year on year and export value fell 42%; although they rose 42% and 5% month on month respectively, both remained in year-on-year contraction. Strength in optical cables and PCBs did not extend to all communications equipment.

How strong a growth assessment can operator revenue and subscriber data support?

  • China's telecommunications services revenue was 140 billion yuan in August, up 0.7% year on year; in July, it had fallen 3.6% year on year. Revenue returned to positive growth, but the increase remained modest.
  • The number of 5G subscribers reached 1.311 billion in August, with net additions of 8 million during the month, below 15 million in July and 17 million in August 2025. The subscriber base continued to expand, but the pace of new additions slowed; together with modest revenue growth, this limits the strength of any assessment of operating conditions.