US Stocks Sunday Evening Brief | “Sunday deadline” passes without action or deal, Riyadh airport comes under attack again on reopening day, French arrest count revised to 1314, futures opening at 06:00 on Monday will reveal market reaction
(Cash-market closing figures are for Friday, 23 October, US Eastern time. As of 21:30 on Sunday Hong Kong time, it is Sunday morning in the eastern US and US equity futures have yet to open. CME futures open at 18:00 on Sunday US Eastern time, or 06:00 on Monday Hong Kong time. European stock markets are closed on Sunday, so this edition has no new futures or cash-market quotes.)

On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 0.52% to 7623.68, the Dow fell 1.23% to 52215.16 (down -652.82 points), the Nasdaq fell 0.21% to 25955.34, and the equal-weight S&P ETF (RSP) fell 0.77% to $216.54 (The Wall Street Journal). The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.987%, the 2-year at 4.68%, and the 30-year at 5.314% (The Wall Street Journal); the Brent December contract closed at $116.72, up 3.1%, and WTI closed at $103.27, up 3.8% (The Wall Street Journal); spot gold closed near $3997 an ounce, below the $4000 threshold; and the US dollar index closed at 101.81, up about 0.2%. For the week, the Dow rose 0.41%, the S&P 500 fell 0.47%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.71%.

Market themes
The time itself, 21:30 on Sunday, is news: as of publication, there has been no confirmed report of either action or an agreement following Trump's Saturday statement that action or a deal could come “as early as Sunday.” Neither outcome materialised during the day on Sunday, leaving the uncertainty for the news window from tonight through early Monday and for futures when they open at 06:00 Monday Hong Kong time. Two developments that materialised on Sunday add to the stakes for Monday. First, Riyadh airport reopened Sunday after two weeks of flight suspensions, only for the Houthis to warn again that day that it remained a “military target”; the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted drones and missiles aimed at Riyadh and southern areas, giving oil prices at their six-month high of $116.72 no reason to ease. Second, the final count from Saturday's protests in France was revised Sunday to 1314 arrests, and unions and the Yellow Vests have set the next protest for Saturday, 31 October, and a strike for 5 November, making French spreads a line to keep watching next week. The script for Monday's open is therefore straightforward: first watch for Iran news tonight, then whether oil moves toward $120 or $108 when futures open, and finally whether Verizon's premarket earnings can steady telecom stocks on Monday. All of this is merely the prelude to next Wednesday, when the FOMC decision and Microsoft and Alphabet earnings arrive on the same day.

I. Sunday's biggest variable: the “Sunday deadline” passes without action or a deal, and fighting flares again on the day Riyadh airport reopens

  • After voting in Florida on Saturday, Trump told reporters the US was considering taking action against Iran again, “maybe tomorrow,” or it might reach a “major deal,” but declined to say whether a decision had been made. As of 21:30 Sunday Hong Kong time, there had been no confirmed report of action or a deal, while it was still Sunday morning in the eastern US. The main news window runs from tonight through early Monday. For markets, the key is not the statement itself but the fact that the timing was specified as “Sunday”: every hour before Monday's open carries headline risk, and the absence of action or a deal during Sunday daytime makes pricing at the futures open more dependent on tonight's news.
  • Sunday's Middle East developments are adding upward pressure to oil prices: Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport resumed operations Sunday after two weeks of flight suspensions, with the first flights bound for London, Dubai, Beijing and other destinations, but only two terminals opened and most international airlines remained suspended (Bloomberg, as reported by another outlet). Houthi spokesperson Saree warned again on Sunday that the airport remained a “military target” and operations against it would continue, and warned all airlines, airport employees and passengers not to use it (Reuters).
  • The Saudi-led coalition said Sunday it intercepted two drones and a ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh, 10 ballistic missiles aimed at southern areas, and a cruise missile aimed at Khamis Mushait. Saudi civil defence authorities briefly issued emergency alerts for Riyadh, Abha and Khamis Mushait, then declared the danger over. The Houthis said they conducted 7 military operations on Saturday, targeting sites including Riyadh airport and Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu (Reuters, as reported by another outlet). The airport's reopening and the attack warning on the same day show that the Saudi front has not cooled. At Monday's open, watch oil prices first, ahead of stock indices.

II. France's “second act,” revised tally: 1314 arrests, about 50 police officers injured, another protest set for next Saturday

  • This edition corrects the preliminary figures in the 17:00 edition: France's Interior Ministry said Sunday that 1314 people were arrested on Saturday, about half the previous week's figure, and about 50 police officers were injured, compared with more than 1000 the previous week. The official participation count was 410 thousand (Reuters). “More arrests and fewer police injuries” resulted from Saturday's deployment of 70 thousand police officers, but police unions warned Sunday that such an intensive deployment cannot be sustained long term, meaning that keeping the situation under control in this way is itself unsustainable.
  • The next actions are already scheduled, with one more than in the 17:00 edition: labour leaders have called for another protest next Saturday (31 October) and a nationwide strike on 5 November. The SUD education union has confirmed it will join the 31 October march, the CGT says it will decide during the week, and the Yellow Vest movement has also called for mass rallies on 31 October, including sit-ins outside city hall and the National Assembly (Reuters). The demands remain wages, the cost of living and public services. The government has begun talks with union and student representatives, but protest leaders say they have received “no response” so far.
  • The transmission path to US stocks is unchanged: on Monday, first watch whether France's 10-year yield and the French-German spread retreat from above 5% and around 175 basis points, respectively. A retreat would give Europe's sovereign debt storm a temporary respite; a widening would leave in place the trigger for last Thursday's surge in US Treasury prices. Moody's backdrop also remains: it maintained France's Aa3 rating and negative outlook, on the assumption that the 2027 deficit-reduction budget is passed. France's public debt had reached 119.0% of GDP in the second quarter of 2026.

III. Bonds, the dollar and commodities: the 10-year yield sits just below 5%, oil remains high and gold loses $4000

  • Friday's closing mix was contradictory: oil prices surged, yet the 10-year yield closed at only 4.987%, up about 4 basis points from Thursday's safe-haven trading and about 9 basis points below the previous Friday for the week. The Wall Street Journal said investors continued shifting toward less volatile stocks, with consumer staples up 9.6% this month and on track for their best monthly performance in 26 years (The Wall Street Journal). There were no new Treasury or dollar quotes on Sunday, and this edition has not obtained futures quotes ahead of Monday's open.
  • Sunday added another chapter to the oil story: Brent rose about 6% for the week and WTI about 2%, their third consecutive weekly gain. Houthi attacks on Saudi energy targets and Sunday's interception reports together heightened supply concerns. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, previously said the global oil market remained fragile and higher energy prices were simultaneously pressuring stocks and bonds because “another inflation shock could limit central banks' room to ease” (Barron's).
  • Gasoline prices have already reached voters: the US national average was $4.29 per gallon on Friday, about 40% higher than a year earlier, and the US midterm elections are on 3 November (The Wall Street Journal). This is the most difficult backdrop for next week's FOMC meeting: if oil prices do not fall, inflation expectations will be hard to bring down; if inflation expectations do not fall, futures pricing of a nearly 80% chance of a December rate hike will be hard to dislodge.

IV. Individual stocks and sector moves, including earnings: energy stands alone; telecom stocks remain Friday's sore spot

  • Energy led on Friday and hit a record high, with Chevron up 2.9% and ConocoPhillips up 3.6%. By contrast, consumer staples fell 1.92%, communication services 1.78%, consumer discretionary 1.66%, and financials 1.32%. American Express fell 3.7% to $313.22: Q3 earnings beat expectations and the company raised its full-year guidance, but it announced layoffs of about 5% and its stock fell rather than rose. The Dow is price-weighted, so a sharp fall in one high-priced stock directly amplified the index's decline.
  • Telecom stocks illustrated a structural shift this week: after news that SpaceX was seeking rights to use around 80 thousand cell sites and could become the fourth nationwide US wireless operator, AT&T and T-Mobile each fell nearly 8% on Friday and Verizon fell 1.2%, while tower operators Crown Castle rose 9% and American Tower rose 4%. Verizon reports first before Monday's open; whether telecom losses can stabilise ahead of its earnings is the first question for the open.
  • Technology stocks stabilised somewhat on Friday: the Nasdaq outperformed the broader market, chip stocks stopped falling and rebounded, Micron rose 2.5%, AMD rose 1.7%, and Microsoft rose 0.7%. Barron's weekly review characterised Friday as “the AI selloff cooled, but the rest of the market paid the price”: the Dow fell 653 points, the S&P fell 0.5%, and the Nasdaq fell just 0.2%, a reversal of Thursday's rotation, while high oil prices “didn't help” (Barron's). The Russell 2000 fell 0.29% on Friday to 2775.90, so small caps were not spared either.

V. AI highlights: next week puts hyperscalers on the hot seat; whether cloud revenue can cover the bill is key

  • Reuters titled its preview of next week “Hyperscalers on the hot seat”: around one-third of S&P 500 companies report next week, including Alphabet and Microsoft on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday. Markets are focused not on revenue growth alone but on capital spending guidance and returns on AI investment (Reuters). Hyperscalers' capital spending is expected to total about $800 billion this year, lifting profits across the AI buildout chain, but rising financing costs have raised market doubts about the sustainability of that spending (Reuters).
  • Nick Giorgi, chief equity strategist at Alpine Macro, says the market “no longer gives the benefit of the doubt to companies that are spending heavily.” That is healthy in itself, but it still means short-term pain (Reuters). King Lip, chief strategist at BakerAvenue, says earnings will determine whether the technology pullback is a buying opportunity or the start of a deeper correction: “All we need is another round of really strong earnings” (Reuters).
  • The fundamental backdrop is not weak: based on the more than 100 companies that have reported, S&P 500 third-quarter earnings growth exceeded 32% year on year (LSEG IBES data, via Reuters). Citi's Scott Chronert wrote in Barron's weekly review that sentiment could stabilise if cloud revenue growth builds further on strong second-quarter numbers; he maintained his year-end S&P 500 target of 8100 (Barron's). There were no major new AI company announcements over the weekend, and this edition has not obtained news of new AI financing or orders.

VI. Calendar ahead (Hong Kong time)

  • 26 October (Monday): 06:00 US equity futures open (18:00 Sunday US Eastern time); Verizon before the open; Cadence after the close; Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Dallas Fed manufacturing survey in the evening. Europe has ended daylight saving time, so European markets open 1 hour later than before in Hong Kong time.
  • 27 October (Tuesday): Israeli general election; 22:00 Conference Board October consumer confidence; Coca-Cola, Boeing and UPS before the open; Visa and Robinhood after the close.
  • Early 29 October (Thursday), 02:00: FOMC decision (markets expect the range to remain at 3.75–4.00%, with no dot plot this meeting; futures price a less than 10% chance of a hike this week and about 80% for a hike in December (Reuters)); 02:30 press conference by the Federal Reserve chair; Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close early the same morning, following Wednesday's US Eastern market close.
  • 29 October (Thursday): 20:30 preliminary Q3 GDP (market forecast for annualised growth of 3.2%, above the previous 2.2%) and September PCE (headline forecast up 0.5% month on month and 3.7% year on year, above the previous 3.4%; core forecast up 0.3% month on month); 21:15 ECB rate decision; Eli Lilly and Mastercard before the open; Amazon and Intel after the close.
  • 30 October (Friday): Bank of Japan decision; 20:30 employment cost index (market forecast 0.8%, below the previous 0.9%); Exxon Mobil and Chevron before the open.
  • 31 October (Saturday): another protest in France, called by unions and the Yellow Vests; the CGT will decide during the week whether to join. 3 November (Tuesday): US midterm elections. 5 November (Thursday): major French union strike.

Source links