Monday US Stocks Evening Brief | Tehran talks approach, Brent falls to $114.6, futures turn positive, Verizon rises 2.4% premarket, European STOXX 600 gains 0.4%
(Cash-market closing prices are for Friday, 23 October, US Eastern time; futures, European market and commodity prices were verified through compliant sources before 21:30 Hong Kong time on 26 October; European stocks were still trading at the time of this brief, so the prices are intraday quotes, not closing prices.)

On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 0.52% to 7623.68 points, the Dow fell 1.23% to 52215.16 points, the Nasdaq fell 0.21% to 25955.34 points, and the equal-weight S&P ETF (RSP) fell 0.77% to $216.54 (The Wall Street Journal). At 05:19 on Monday US Eastern time, Dow futures rose 257 points (+0.49%), S&P 500 futures rose 23.25 points (+0.30%), and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 73 points (+0.25%) (Reuters, republished). In European intraday trading, the pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.4% to 638.45 points (at 10:50 GMT) (Reuters, republished). The 10-year US Treasury yield closed Friday at 4.999%, then eased slightly early Monday while remaining near 5%; Brent crude fell about 2% to $114.6 early Monday (Reuters, republished); spot gold held above $4000 an ounce (Saxo); the US dollar index closed Friday at 101.81. For this brief, a premarket dollar index quote verified through compliant sources was not yet available, nor was a premarket quote for the equal-weight S&P ETF.

Market focus
The premarket picture in Monday's evening brief is a step clearer than at midday: the market is trading on “talks before firing,” not “the end of war.” Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan gathered in Tehran on Monday, after Qatari mediators arrived on Sunday. Oil consequently retreated from its six-month high of $116.72, while futures and European stocks also turned positive. Yet the Houthis continued to attack Saudi oil pumping stations and Riyadh airport on Monday, and US strike options against Iran have repeatedly been described as potentially resuming after the 3 November midterm elections. Tonight's rise is therefore a “partial refund” of the risk premium, not the removal of the risk itself: oil remains above $110, the 10-year yield remains stuck near 5%, and none of the real tests has yet arrived ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision and Microsoft and Alphabet earnings on the same day. At the open tonight, watch whether Verizon's gains can stabilize telecom stocks and whether the 22:30 Dallas Fed manufacturing survey adds another clue to the question of holding steady or hiking in December.

One. Iran: senior officials from three countries gather in Tehran, but Houthi attacks continue on Monday

  • The talks' lineup is Monday's biggest new variable. Bloomberg reported that Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani army chief Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin met in Tehran on Monday with Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, and President Pezeshkian, aiming to ease tensions and breathe new life into negotiations (Bloomberg, republished). Reuters added that this was the first high-level contact between Iran and the three countries in the Mecca defense pact; Qatari mediators were already in Tehran on Sunday and were pursuing de-escalation in coordination with the US (Reuters, republished). The joint visit itself signals a cooling of tensions: Saudi Arabia is no longer facing pressure alone and has put regional security talks on the table.
  • But the fighting has not cooled in tandem. Reuters reported that the Houthis said on Monday they had attacked Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pumping stations and Riyadh airport; Riyadh had not confirmed the claims. Saudi Arabia had previously said the delegation hoped to find a way to “ease tensions and strengthen regional security” (Reuters, republished). Talks and missiles coexist, which is the fundamental reason oil has fallen only about 2% rather than returning below $100.
  • The transmission path to US stocks is unchanged: first watch for substantive results from the talks, then see whether oil moves toward $120 or $108. Reuters characterized this week in its Monday global markets report as a “powerful combination”: mega-cap earnings, AI financing worries, meetings of five major central banks, and inflation and growth data coincide, and “one catalyst may change the interpretation of the next” (Reuters, republished). The Tehran talks are the week's first catalyst, but far from its last.

Two. European and Asian markets: Europe rebounds, German business sentiment beats expectations, energy falls and travel rises

  • The intraday European rebound has a clear profile: the pan-European STOXX 600 gained 0.4% to 638.45 points, after recording its biggest weekly decline since early September on Friday; energy fell 1.5%, travel and leisure stocks rose 1.6%, and most sectors advanced (Reuters, republished). Danish biotechnology company Genmab rose 13.7%, leading the STOXX 600. Germany's Ifo survey showed business confidence improved more than expected in October, and the German benchmark index rose 0.9% (Reuters, republished). Falling oil prices first eased European inflation expectations, while improving German sentiment gave the rebound a second support.
  • Another aspect of the European morning session also merits a note. Reuters reported early in the day that the STOXX 600 was nearly flat at 636.26 points at 08:09 GMT; energy fell 0.7% and travel stocks rose about 1%. Portugal's Galp posted an above-forecast 68% surge in third-quarter adjusted net profit, yet its shares fell 8.5%; Computacenter rose 6.8% after raising its full-year profit guidance (Reuters). A flat morning and higher midday prices show Europe was trading on the gradual confirmation of the same news, rather than a fleeting mood at the open.
  • The view that Asian markets fell first on Monday was covered at midday and is not repeated here: Asia traded on Friday's closing sentiment, while Europe and the US traded on Sunday's change in news. There was no new cash-market news on France on Monday, and premarket quotes for the French 10-year yield and the French-German spread were not yet available for this brief. The next scheduled dates are unchanged: another protest on Saturday, 31 October, and a general strike on 5 November.

Three. Bonds, the dollar and commodities: the 10-year yield remains near 5%, gold holds $4000, and oil stays above $110

  • Monday's combination was a notch “milder” than Friday's, but none of the components has truly turned: the 10-year yield eased slightly from Friday's 4.999% but remained near 5%; gold held above $4000, after falling more than 4% the previous week in its biggest weekly decline since June (Saxo). Brent was around $114.6 early Monday, down about 2%; last week it rose 6.2% and recorded its highest weekly close since mid-2022 (Reuters, republished). Giving back about $2 reverses only a small part of last week's gain—oil remains above $110, and pressure on inflation expectations has not lifted.
  • The latest reading on rate expectations is unchanged: markets broadly expect the Federal Reserve to hold steady this week, with an implied probability of about 80% for a hike in December (Reuters, republished). Reuters also reported on Monday that the European Central Bank was widely expected to pause at Thursday's meeting, after raising rates in June and September as the Iran war pushed up energy prices; economists polled by Reuters expected a 25-basis-point hike in December (Reuters, republished). A hold this week is almost the consensus; the real question is whether Wednesday's statement and press conference open or narrow the door to a hike in December.
  • One regional data release published at 20:30 tonight is worth noting: the Chicago Fed National Activity Index turned positive in September at +0.07, above market expectations of -0.1; the August figure was revised to -0.08 (Chicago Fed). One positive month does not mean the trend has strengthened, but it at least indicates that US real activity has not yet collapsed while oil prices are high.

Four. Stock and sector moves, including earnings: Verizon raises guidance and gains 2.4% premarket; telecom stocks take a first step toward stabilizing

  • Verizon is the clearest premarket earnings story tonight. Reuters reported that Verizon added a net 406 thousand monthly paying wireless subscribers in the third quarter, nearly twice analysts' expectation of 209.4 thousand. It raised its full-year postpaid phone net additions guidance to 1.1 million–1.2 million from 750 thousand–1 million, and its full-year adjusted earnings-per-share guidance to $5.04–5.06 from $4.99–5.04. Shares rose 2.4% premarket (Reuters, republished). Subscriber additions nearly doubled expectations and both guidance ranges were raised, providing the initial stabilization signal telecom stocks most needed after Friday's plunge.
  • But there was another side to the results: Verizon's third-quarter revenue of $34.3 billion fell short of analysts' $34.74 billion forecast because customers are keeping phones longer and upgrading fewer devices (Reuters, republished). Subscribers are growing while devices are slowing—Verizon's story is one of making money on services and spending less on hardware; after the open, watch which half the market rewards first.
  • Verizon also secured an AI ticket: it signed an AI infrastructure agreement worth more than $2 billion with Amazon Web Services (AWS) to provide high-capacity fiber connections for AWS data centers. In July this year, it had already signed a dark-fiber agreement worth more than $1 billion with Google (Reuters, republished). Telecom operators are positioning themselves as part of AI infrastructure, a theme that could reshape telecom valuation logic after Friday's news of SpaceX's entry.
  • Friday's backdrop remains unchanged: energy led the market and reached a record high, with Chevron up 2.9% and ConocoPhillips up 3.6%; by contrast, consumer staples fell 1.92%, communication services 1.78%, consumer discretionary 1.66%, and financials 1.32%. According to Barron's weekly preview, the after-hours earnings watch tonight includes Cadence, Nucor, Welltower, Public Storage and Hartford (Barron's).

Five. AI news: neocloud providers fall again premarket; Saxo says the market wants evidence of monetization

  • The sharpest premarket divergence is among neocloud providers. Reuters reported that CoreWeave and Nebius each fell about 3% premarket on Monday, IREN fell 2.6%, and Applied Digital fell 1.5%; by contrast, Tesla led large-cap stocks with a premarket gain of 2.1% (Reuters, republished). Musk posted on X on Sunday that capital markets were “almost entirely closed” to companies without substantial revenue independent of AI data centers, and predicted that neocloud providers would consolidate and that SpaceX would not buy one (Reuters, republished). Those with revenue rise and those without fall—the AI trade's selection criterion is shifting from storytelling to calculating cash flow.
  • Saxo chief investment strategist Charu Chanana identified this week's grading criterion: strong AI demand alone may no longer suffice, as the market wants evidence of monetization, margins and cash flow (Reuters, republished). Reuters' weekly preview likewise noted that about one-third of S&P 500 companies report earnings this week, with Alphabet and Microsoft on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday. The market is watching capital expenditure guidance and returns on AI investment rather than revenue growth itself (Reuters).
  • Last week's lesson remains: Meta disappointed investors after raising its full-year AI spending expectations and saying it would issue new shares to raise funds; Tesla also fell after its results (Reuters, republished). Citi's Scott Chronert wrote in Barron's weekly review that sentiment could stabilize if cloud revenue growth builds further on the strong second-quarter figures; he maintained his year-end target of 8100 points for the S&P 500 (Barron's). As of this Monday brief, no major new AI company announcements had been obtained.

Six. Upcoming calendar (Hong Kong time)

  • 26 October (Monday), tonight: after the close, Cadence, Nucor, Welltower, Public Storage and Hartford earnings; 22:30, Dallas Fed October manufacturing survey.
  • 27 October (Tuesday): Israeli general election; 20:30, September durable goods orders; 21:00, Case-Shiller August home price index; 22:00, Conference Board October consumer confidence, new home sales and Richmond Fed manufacturing index; premarket, Coca-Cola, Boeing and UPS earnings; after the close, Visa and Robinhood earnings.
  • 29 October (Thursday), 02:00: FOMC decision (markets expect a hold at 3.75–4.00%; no dot plot this round; probability of holding this week above 90% and probability of a hike in December about 80%); 02:30, Federal Reserve chair's press conference; early the same day, Microsoft and Alphabet after-hours earnings (after Wednesday's US Eastern close).
  • 29 October (Thursday): 20:30, preliminary Q3 GDP (market forecast annualized growth of 3.2%, above the previous 2.2%) and September PCE; 21:15, ECB rate decision; premarket, Eli Lilly and Mastercard earnings; after the close, Amazon and Intel earnings.
  • 30 October (Friday): Bank of Japan decision; 20:30, employment cost index (market forecast 0.8%, below the previous 0.9%); premarket, Exxon Mobil and Chevron earnings.
  • 31 October (Saturday): another protest in France (called by unions and the Yellow Vests; CGT will decide this week whether to participate); 3 November (Tuesday): US midterm elections; 5 November (Thursday): general strike by French unions.

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