US stocks Tuesday evening brief | Futures edge higher, durable goods orders beat expectations, Coca-Cola raises guidance, UPS lifts full-year outlook, Nvidia invests 3 billion dollars in Meta
(Cash-market closing figures are for Monday, 26 October, US Eastern time; futures, European trading and premarket earnings quotes were verified through compliant sources before 21:30 Hong Kong time on 27 October. US stocks had just opened at 21:30 Hong Kong time, so this edition focuses on premarket developments; intraday quotes were not available for this edition.)

On Monday, the S&P 500 rose 0.70% to 7677.03 points, the Dow rose 0.28% to 52361.76 points, the Nasdaq rose 0.83% to 26169.38 points, and the equal-weight S&P ETF (RSP) gained about 0.35% to 217.29 dollars (Reuters, as reported by another source). At 06:56 US Eastern time on Tuesday, Dow futures were up 169 points (+0.32%), S&P 500 futures were up 15 points (+0.19%), and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 79 points (+0.27%) (Reuters, as reported by another source). The 10-year US Treasury yield closed Monday at 5.00% (The Wall Street Journal, as reported by another source); Brent crude remained near 114.63 dollars in Tuesday premarket trading, down about 1% from Monday (The Wall Street Journal, as reported by another source); spot gold climbed back above 4000 dollars per ounce on Monday (Reuters); and the US dollar index edged higher on Monday, moving above 102 (Reuters). Exact premarket quotes for the 10-year US Treasury yield, spot gold and the dollar index, verified through compliant sources, were not available for this edition.

Market themes
The premarket logic of Tuesday’s evening brief is: “Earnings build confidence first; central banks and data then set the direction.” Durable goods orders beat expectations, Coca-Cola and UPS both raised their full-year outlooks, and Celestica’s AI orders informed its 2027 guidance, helping futures edge higher before the open—but that is only the backdrop before trading begins, not a conclusion for the full day. The Federal Reserve meeting starts today, with its decision tomorrow evening; consumer confidence and new home sales will not be released until 22:00 tonight, while Visa and Robinhood will provide another test of consumer and retail-investor sentiment after the close. Tonight the market is still trading on the principle of “don’t short good earnings before the answers are in”: oil’s second consecutive daily decline offered some breathing room, but prices remain high; Europe was weighed down by HSBC, while chips led gains in Asia. The divergence itself is a reminder that the same AI and interest-rate news is judged differently across markets.

I. Premarket and data: Durable goods orders beat expectations, but transportation equipment accounts for most of the increase

  • US durable goods orders rose 1.8% month on month in September to 345.4 billion dollars, above the market forecast of 1.4%; growth for August was revised to 0.1% (US Census Bureau, as reported by another source). The headline beat is real, but its quality is less impressive: transportation equipment contributed most of the increase, while core orders missed expectations. The data show a manufacturing sector that has not collapsed, but is not accelerating across the board either.
  • Reuters’ premarket report was similarly restrained: stock-index futures were only “slightly higher,” while crude fell for a second consecutive day but remained near its highest level since late April. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates this week, while market pricing points to at least two further hikes before mid-2027 (Reuters, as reported by another source). John Velis, head of Americas strategy at BNY, made a remark worth recording as stated: he does not expect a hike this week, but would not oppose one because “maintaining credibility is vital,” and the inflation target has been missed for more than 60 consecutive months (Reuters, as reported by another source). That sets the baseline for tomorrow evening’s decision: holding rates is not a shift toward easing, and the wording of the statement matters more than the decision itself.
  • Israel votes in its general election today, with polling stations open from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. local time. Official results are due on 4 November, and coalition negotiations could last weeks or even months (Reuters). There will be no election result to act as a catalyst tonight; the market is still trading on dialogue with Tehran and oil prices, rather than the vote count in Jerusalem.

II. European trading: HSBC drags down banks, STOXX 600 falls 0.2% to 639.64 points

  • European shares fell early Tuesday: the pan-European STOXX 600 was down 0.2% at 639.64 points at 08:05 GMT (16:05 Hong Kong time), after rising nearly 0.8% on Monday. HSBC fell 6.9%, and the banking index dropped 1.3% (Reuters). It took just one day for HSBC alone to give back much of Monday’s rebound in Europe—today’s decline is about earnings, not the macro backdrop.
  • HSBC’s results are a textbook case of “good profit, poor share performance”: third-quarter pretax profit jumped 32% year on year to 9.6 billion dollars, in line with expectations, and the bank announced a buyback of up to 1 billion dollars. But wealth-management revenue was flat at 2.7 billion dollars, after year-on-year growth of 15% and 23% in the previous two quarters respectively (Reuters, as reported by another source). The market is penalising the stalled growth engine, rather than profit—just as it did on Monday when Verizon fell 3.5% after beating earnings expectations but missing on revenue.
  • The situation in France also showed no sign of easing: French student leaders vowed to continue protesting despite government concessions on education, deepening concerns that protests could spread to unions and other activists. French stocks had already fallen more than 2% last week (Reuters). Switzerland’s Novartis raised its full-year core operating profit guidance and its shares rose 3.1%, one of the few bright spots in Europe on Tuesday (Reuters). Europe’s mix today is falling banks, rising pharmaceuticals and a drag from France—no systemic panic, but no broad force behind a rebound either.

III. Bonds, the dollar and commodities: 10-year yield stuck around 5%, oil falls for two days and gold holds 4000 dollars

  • Tuesday’s premarket mix is a notch milder than Monday’s, but none of its components has truly turned: the 10-year yield closed Monday at 5.00%; oil fell for a second consecutive day but remained near its highest level since late April; and gold hovered near 4000 dollars in premarket trading after reclaiming that level on Monday. The oil pullback offers relief, not a full escape—as long as Houthi attacks and the option to “finish it” remain on the table, oil is unlikely to return below 110 dollars in one move, precisely the inflation backdrop markets least want ahead of Thursday’s GDP and PCE releases.
  • The scale of rate expectations has not changed: a Fed hold this week is nearly consensus, and the real question remains whether Wednesday’s statement and press conference will open the door to or close it on a December hike. Reuters reported during Tuesday’s Asian session that money markets were broadly calm ahead of decisions by the Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan; all three were expected to hold rates, with attention focused on what officials’ remarks would imply for the rate outlook (Reuters, as reported by another source). Three central banks holding in the same week, with only their rhetoric to compare—that is why the bond market is stuck around 5%: nobody wants to move first on the eve of the decisions.

IV. Stock and sector moves, including earnings: Coca-Cola and UPS raise guidance; Boeing continues to narrow losses

  • Coca-Cola is the clearest consumer story in tonight’s premarket: third-quarter revenue rose 7.4% to 13.38 billion dollars, above analysts’ forecast of 12.92 billion dollars; adjusted earnings per share were 91 cents, above the expected 88 cents; global unit volume grew about 5%, while North American volume was flat (Reuters, as reported by another source). The company raised its full-year comparable currency-neutral earnings-per-share growth guidance from 7%–8% to at least 9% (Reuters, as reported by another source). Revenue, profit and guidance all beat expectations, yet the shares rose before falling back in premarket trading—for a stock already up about 33% this year, the market is becoming less generous in rewarding good results.
  • UPS also raised its full-year outlook: third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 1.69 dollars beat expectations of 1.63 dollars; full-year revenue guidance rose from 91.2 billion dollars to 92.6 billion dollars, while adjusted earnings-per-share guidance rose from 7.22 dollars to about 7.28 dollars. The adjusted operating margin for US domestic packages rose from 6.4% to 7.0%, and the international margin was 14.9% (Reuters, as reported by another source). UPS’s story is not simply more packages, but more high-margin packages and fewer low-margin Amazon orders—a more valuable development than volume growth alone ahead of the holiday peak.
  • Boeing posted third-quarter revenue of 24.2 billion dollars, up about 4% year on year. Its GAAP net loss narrowed to 116 million dollars, or 0.26 dollars per share, much better than the 5.339 billion-dollar net loss a year earlier; operating cash flow was 1.5 billion dollars and the total order backlog reached a record 745 billion dollars (Boeing earnings release, as reported by another source). The 737-7 received FAA amended type certification during the quarter, and the 737-10 was certified in October (Boeing earnings release, as reported by another source). Losses narrowed sharply and the backlog hit a record, so Boeing’s recovery story continues, but the per-share loss was still slightly worse than expected. Tonight the market will first look for certification and deliveries to translate into cash flow.
  • The other side of premarket trading: PayPal shares fell nearly 1% despite the company raising its full-year adjusted profit outlook (Reuters, as reported by another source); Tesla rose more than 1% premarket, extending Monday’s gain of more than 5% (Reuters, as reported by another source). Some shares fall even after guidance is raised, while others keep rising after earlier gains—the premarket divergence reflects how much had already been priced into each stock, rather than simply whether earnings were good or bad.

V. AI news: Nvidia invests 3 billion dollars in Meta; Celestica’s 2027 guidance fires up hardware stocks

  • Nvidia and Meta deepened their collaboration on the Muse AI assistant on Tuesday: Nvidia will invest 3 billion dollars in Meta’s equity financing, while Meta will expand deployment of infrastructure including Nvidia Vera Rubin and Vera CPU (Dow Jones, as reported by another source). Meta has increased the size of its equity financing to 97.5 billion dollars, the largest in its history, with Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom indicating an interest in subscribing for up to 5 billion dollars of common shares in total (Reuters, as reported by another source). Chipmakers provide financing to a major customer and then sell chips to that customer—this is the “circular transaction” the market has repeatedly questioned: the orders are real, and so is the closed financing loop.
  • Celestica is the brightest light in premarket AI hardware: third-quarter revenue was 5.83 billion dollars, up 83% year on year, and adjusted earnings per share of 3.30 dollars beat expectations of 2.96 dollars. Its 2027 revenue guidance of 40 billion dollars exceeded Wall Street’s forecast of 35.5 billion dollars; shares rose about 17% premarket (MarketWatch, as reported by another source). Goldman Sachs identified the key turning point: demand at the company level remains strong, but “increasingly key is whether and at what price the market is willing to supply capital”; rising costs are changing the economics of the entire AI complex (MarketWatch, as reported by another source). Celestica is rising on orders, while Nvidia–Meta is rising on financing—the former shows demand remains, while the latter reminds the market to ask where the money funding that demand comes from.
  • The test early Wednesday remains unchanged: Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close, and Saxo chief investment strategist Charu Chanana’s yardstick still applies—“strong AI demand alone is no longer enough; the market wants evidence of monetisation, margins and cash flow” (Reuters). Celestica’s 2027 guidance tonight is only the appetiser; early Wednesday brings the main course for the AI trade.

VI. Forward calendar (Hong Kong time)

  • 27 October (Tuesday), tonight: Israeli general election voting (polls open until 22:00 local time; official results on 4 November); first day of the FOMC meeting; 20:30 durable goods orders for September (released, +1.8% month on month); 22:00 Conference Board consumer confidence for October, new home sales for September, and Richmond Fed manufacturing index; after the close: Visa, Robinhood, NXP, Seagate and Teradyne.
  • 29 October (Thursday), 02:00 a.m.: FOMC decision (market expects rates to remain at 3.75–4.00%; no dot plot this round; probability of a hold this week above 90%, probability of a December hike about 80%); 02:30 Fed Chair’s press conference; Microsoft and Alphabet earnings early the same morning, after Wednesday’s US Eastern close.
  • 29 October (Thursday): 20:30 preliminary Q3 GDP (market expects annualised growth of 3.2%, above the previous 2.2%) and PCE for September; 21:15 ECB rate decision; premarket: Eli Lilly and Mastercard; after the close: Amazon and Intel.
  • 30 October (Friday): Bank of Japan decision; 20:30 employment cost index (market expects 0.8%, below the previous 0.9%); premarket: Exxon Mobil and Chevron.
  • 31 October (Saturday): Further marches in France, called by unions and the Yellow Vests; 3 November (Tuesday): US midterm elections; 5 November (Thursday): major strike by French unions.

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