Program and guest
The Bloomberg Insight host speaks with Dan Niles, founder of Niles Investment Management. Original English title: As Stocks Reel From AI Rout, Investors Seek Safety Beyond Tech. The subtitles cover 0:00–94:14; this article covers only Niles’s interview segment (4:08–18:20), not the segments with the program’s other guests, including Fei Xialaki on crude oil, Avery on U.S.-China competition, and Joanna Lu on China’s real estate transition.
Key takeaways
- This correction is healthy and long overdue: Texas had stopped approving data-center connections to the power grid as early as August, and excessive speculation needs to be flushed out. 4:08
- Agentic AI is just getting started, and the setup looks a lot like 1997–1998: the semiconductor index fell twice in the middle of that year, then finished higher, and rallied sharply in 1999. 5:24
- Token usage is still surging, but prices are falling; open-source models from Asia, along with open-weight models from Nvidia and Meta, are pushing down average token prices. 10:47
- Anthropic’s revenue growth slowed from about 145% quarter over quarter in the second quarter to about 43% in the third quarter, and could be only around 20% in the fourth quarter. Slowing revenue growth at the two leading AI-native companies means valuation multiples need to come down. 11:12
- A 6% drop in the S&P 500 is no big deal; the only issue is managing those semiconductor positions with 3-times leverage. Going forward, investors will need to be selective about individual stocks; the past market, in which anything associated with AI rose 30-fold, was unhealthy. 12:34
Background and notes
This Bloomberg Insight episode is a daily program featuring multiple guests. The subtitles cover 0:00–94:14; this article covers Niles’s interview from 4:08 to 18:20 and does not cover the other guests’ segments. The views and timestamps in the article are based on the original subtitles; each timestamp marks the start of the corresponding spoken segment.