The Program and Guest
A Bloomberg Podcasts Odd Lots conversation with Alexander “Alty” Altmann, Barclays’ global head of equity tactical strategy, hosted by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal. Original English title: What Wall Street Really Thinks About the AI Trade Now | Odd Lots. The subtitles cover the full episode (40:00); this article covers Altmann’s conversation.
Key Points
(The following paraphrases the guest’s intended meaning; timestamp links point to the corresponding places in the original video.)
- The consensus outlook for AI remains that “this train is running and won’t stop”: if you sampled different groups of investors across the United States, Europe and Asia and forced them to choose between being bullish or bearish on the AI story, the overwhelming response would still be positive. One can debate the size of their positions, but that is the overall view. 2:25
- Compared with a bubble-cycle chart, the market is currently in the “denial phase”: he would not say the bubble has already burst, but if you put two narratives side by side—some saying the bubble has burst and everyone else still extremely bullish—the latter is characteristic of the denial phase. 3:20
- The view that AI is unaffected by high interest rates has been disproved: he too previously believed AI was immune to high rates, but that is clearly not the case. Interest rates remain a variable the AI narrative must confront. 9:41
- The first thing that could shake bullish conviction in AI is a hyperscaler tightening capital spending: when asked what would scare investors and erode their bullish conviction in AI, that was the answer he immediately gave. On his way to the studio, a client had also asked whether he would question whether this would actually happen. 25:39
Background and Notes
The subtitles cover the full episode (40:00); this article covers Altmann’s conversation. The views and timestamps are paraphrased from the original subtitles, and each timestamp marks the beginning of the segment containing the corresponding remarks. The guest’s name follows the program description: Alexander Altmann.