Show and guest
An earnings review on Steve Eisman’s personal channel, The Real Eisman Playbook. This article covers the S-1 segment and the earnings review segment (approximately 3:32–23:11); it does not cover the France, CoreWeave or Telepocalypse segments.
Key points
(The following paraphrases the guest’s views; timestamp links point to the corresponding locations in the original video.)
- The S-1 lists approximately 800 billion dollars in total future commitments: 45 billion dollars to Microsoft, 115 billion dollars to Google, 150 billion dollars to a TPU supplier, 110 billion dollars to Amazon, 121 billion dollars to SpaceX, 161 billion dollars to Broadcom and others. There is no room for error, and computing costs could rise substantially starting in 2027. 4:24
- Growth has already slowed: quarter-on-quarter revenue growth fell from 43% in the fourth quarter of last year, 135% in the first quarter of this year and 147% in the second quarter to 45% in the third quarter. The efficiency ratio of revenue to computing spending also fell from 2.08 times in the second quarter to 1.70 times in the third quarter; the slowdown following the end of token maxing is materializing. 7:25
- October price cuts may struggle to close the gap: in October, Anthropic cut token prices by as much as 50% to stimulate demand. OpenRouter data show that demand did rise, but Eisman doubts the increase is enough to offset the price cuts. 7:40
- Microsoft: earnings per share and total revenue both beat expectations, and Azure revenue reached 33 billion dollars, up 48%. However, quarterly capital spending and finance leases totaled 45 billion dollars, below market expectations of 51 billion dollars; the news dragged shares of emerging cloud providers down by 5% to 9%. 14:27
- Google: total revenue grew 25%, but search revenue grew only 12% (versus 19% in the first quarter), and free cash flow was negative 9.1 billion dollars. Eisman believes the capital-light search business with a wide moat is slowly being replaced by the capital-intensive large-model business with a narrower moat. 15:23
- Amazon: earnings per share of 1.89 dollars and revenue of 202 billion dollars both missed expectations, and its 2026 capital spending budget remained unchanged at 220 billion dollars, after being raised every prior quarter. This led the market to question whether growth in AI capital spending has reached its limit. 22:22
Background and notes
Subtitles cover 0:00–30:05 (approximately 30:05 in total). This article covers the S-1 segment and the earnings review segment (3:32–23:11); it does not cover the France, CoreWeave or Telepocalypse segments. The views and timestamps are paraphrased from the original subtitles; timestamps mark the start of the corresponding passages.