Unhidea explains global investment research, selected interviews and market briefs. Explore source attribution, dates, key assumptions and the reasoning behind each article.
Goldman Sachs' China Current Activity Indicator rose to a month-on-month annualized 5.4% in September, with manufacturing the main driver. Meanwhile, import-implied domestic demand growth slowed, investment and inventory indicators weakened in the third quarter, and fiscal and financial conditions tightened somewhat.
Goldman Sachs ·
Gerard DiPippo, director of global macro at Eurasia Group, says China does not publish its industrial policy spending, leaving outsiders to estimate direct subsidies and tax incentives. “Unlimited resources” are therefore more a matter of imagination. Meanwhile, China’s economy is slowing significantly, and over the past five years self-reliance has become central to reducing external dependence.
Center for Strategic & International Studies ·
London School of Economics professor Keyu Jin says that after the pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, Trumpism and the energy crisis, people have been talking about deglobalisation, Cold War 2.0 and decoupling, but that is not what happened at all; US-China trade peaked in 2022, revealing a clear gap between political narratives and trade reality.
Wealth Office ·
Tencent Cloud CEO Dowson Tong says capital expenditure is substantial for most players, but demand is equally strong. Tencent once had a “leaky boat” because of insufficient computing capacity and team integration challenges; its high-end models have now made marked progress, and the enormous value created by AI will eventually make the investment economics work.
Bloomberg Television ·
Industrial enterprise profits rose 14.4% year on year in September, up from 4.2% in August. JPMorgan believes AI demand and upstream prices supported profits, but continued weakness in automotive and consumption-related manufacturing prolonged the divergence.
J.P. Morgan ·
Morgan Stanley expects China’s export share to keep rising and Industry 5.0 to create long-term investment opportunities. But weaker employment transmission, household deleveraging and excess capacity make it difficult for strong exports to translate quickly into broad-based reflation.
Morgan Stanley ·
Goldman Sachs believes the rise in year-on-year industrial profit growth to 14.1% in September was mainly due to base effects. On a seasonally adjusted basis, profits were flat month on month and revenue fell 0.1%. The bank expects both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs to decline in October.
Goldman Sachs ·
Goldman Sachs expects high-tech industries to contribute about 2 percentage points a year to China's real GDP growth in 2026–2030, but the same amount of spending generates less employment and labor income than in real estate and services.
Goldman Sachs ·
Morgan Stanley chief China equity strategist Laura Wang says that, compared with valuations during the financial crisis and early in the pandemic, Chinese stocks could have another 10% to 15% downside, although value is starting to emerge in some sectors.
Bloomberg Television ·
Nomura believes industrial profit growth rose markedly in September from August, mainly driven by higher industrial producer prices. Profit margins improved but remained below the second-quarter average.
Nomura ·
Bloomberg “The China Show” guest segment: Goldman Sachs chief China equity strategist Kinger Lau discusses MSCI China trading at approximately 9 times forward earnings, back near its lows before September 2024; overall earnings are expected to grow approximately 10%, while profits in China’s AI sector grew 20% in the first half.
Bloomberg Television ·
In this guest segment of Bloomberg’s The China Show, Jim Caron, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Portfolio Solutions Group, discusses AI spending as the market’s current main theme, earnings expectations as high as 35% to 40%, and a potential pullback as a buying opportunity. The program also explains Moonshot’s latest Kimi K3.1 model, saying it trails top US models by only two or three points on several benchmarks and costs about half as much per task.
Bloomberg Television ·
Real GDP grew 4.5% year over year in the third quarter, and the full-year growth target looks achievable. But fiscal spending fell in the first nine months, prompting Goldman Sachs to lower its full-year augmented fiscal deficit forecast; the bank also expects the central bank to switch its policy rate benchmark next year.
Goldman Sachs ·
Goldman Sachs has raised its estimate of the direct drag from real estate on real GDP growth in 2026 from 1.5 percentage points to 1.8 percentage points, but expects it to narrow to 1.3 percentage points in 2027. The key is the property sector’s declining share of the economy; diverging home prices, shrinking household wealth and lost local land revenues will determine how long the adjustment lasts.
Goldman Sachs ·
Goldman Sachs’ 23 October tracker shows that domestic flights, port throughput and existing-home transactions improved over the past week, while new-home transactions remained well below their year-earlier level and steel demand declined. Fiscal issuance progress and falling funding rates provide another line of observation.
Goldman Sachs ·
Fiscal spending rebounded month on month in September, but remained nearly stagnant year on year, while the decline in property-related revenue widened. Goldman Sachs cut its forecast for the 2026 broad fiscal deficit as a share of GDP from 11.5% to 10.0%. It expects the fiscal drag to ease in the fourth quarter, while the full-year fiscal impulse remains weaker than in 2025.
Goldman Sachs ·
General public budget revenue fell year on year for the first time this year in September, the decline in land-sale revenue widened, and fiscal spending remained behind the budget target. JPMorgan believes the additional local bond quotas can ease local funding pressures, but there is a lag between bond issuance and project execution, so some support for growth will continue into early 2027.
J.P. Morgan ·
Nomura believes that, although the decline in broad fiscal spending narrowed in the third quarter, it still weighed on growth. Government bond financing is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter, but its actual impact will depend on how the funds are used and the constraints corporate arrears place on complementary financing.
Nomura ·
LT350 founder Jeff Thramann and former Defense Secretary Mark Esper speak with Fox: AI data centers’ energy demand is surging, and LT350 plans to install solar panels and batteries above parking lots. Esper stresses that the US must continue to lead China in the AI race and will lose the race if it cannot build data centers.
Fox Business ·
摩根大通认为，新增地方债额度为四季度及2027年初增长提供上行空间；10月高频数据则显示，出口或放缓，汽车消费与新房销售仍承压。
J.P. Morgan ·
