What changed in financial conditions?
- Goldman Sachs’ nominal US financial conditions index tightened by 0.1 basis points over the past week to 98.86; the inflation-adjusted real index tightened by 0.4 basis points to 98.52.
- The change in the nominal index mainly reflected two opposing forces: a decline in 10-year US Treasury yields and a fall in equity prices offset each other, leaving financial conditions only slightly tighter.
What do economic activity and the GDP forecast show?
- Goldman Sachs’ current activity indicator for October showed annualized growth of 3.5%, up from 3.4% in September. The indicator combines 37 key weekly and monthly US economic indicators to track changes in economic activity.
- Goldman Sachs’ tracking forecast for US real GDP in the third quarter of 2026 is for annualized quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.3%. This forecast and the October activity indicator cover different time windows, reflecting the third-quarter growth estimate and the latest activity reading, respectively.
How has the degree of surprise in recent data changed?
- Goldman Sachs’ US economic surprise index fell on a net basis to positive 0.1. Viewed alongside the activity indicator’s rise from the previous month, the latest data convey information along different dimensions: the economic activity reading increased, while the economic surprise index declined.
- Goldman Sachs also presented the modeled effect of financial conditions on real GDP growth, calculated on the assumption that the financial conditions index remains unchanged after the dates listed.