高盛：美联储10月按兵不动，预计12月加息后结束本轮紧缩
美联储在上次加息后于10月维持利率不变。高盛认为，会议措辞和主席表态支持隔次会议加息的节奏，但若通胀高于该行预期，明年3月仍可能再加一次。
Goldman Sachs ·
Topic：Macroeconomics
Unhidea explains global investment research, selected interviews and market briefs. Explore source attribution, dates, key assumptions and the reasoning behind each article.
油价冲击为何暂未拖垮新兴市场？高盛：亚洲进口国仍最脆弱
新兴市场增长保持在趋势以上，通胀涨幅也低于预期。高盛认为，政策干预和其他增长动力缓冲了油价冲击，但若油价进一步上涨，净进口经济体仍面临增长与外部收支压力。
Goldman Sachs ·
Stocks and bonds after the Fed resumes rate hikes depend on why tightening ends
Goldman Sachs expects one more rate hike in this cycle, fewer than the roughly three priced in by markets. Historically, stocks have often stumbled briefly after the first hike, but improving inflation, growth concerns and prolonged tightening produce different asset performances.
Goldman Sachs ·
China's economic activity picked up in September, but domestic demand, investment and policy indicators remained weak
Goldman Sachs' China Current Activity Indicator rose to a month-on-month annualized 5.4% in September, with manufacturing the main driver. Meanwhile, import-implied domestic demand growth slowed, investment and inventory indicators weakened in the third quarter, and fiscal and financial conditions tightened somewhat.
Goldman Sachs ·
Macquarie strategist Berry: Fed rate hikes less likely over the next six months than markets think
Gareth Berry, Macquarie’s foreign exchange and rates strategist, says the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates at 3.75% to 4%, with only two officials advocating a hike rather than the three expected by the market, together with plans to reduce the number of rate-setting meetings starting in 2027, makes further hikes over the next six months less likely than the market had previously assumed.
CNA (ChannelNewsAsia) ·
Morgan Stanley’s Gapen: The Fed held steady, but the chair offered no convincing explanation
Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley’s chief US economist, said what surprised him most was that the chair offered no convincing explanation for why the committee held steady this month. The real policy-based answer is that inflation is driven largely by supply-side forces, raising rates cannot produce more oil, and monetary policy can only prevent energy prices from passing through to other goods.
Prof G Markets (Scott Galloway & Ed Elson) ·
China’s September industrial profit growth rebounds: technology and mining lead gains, while auto profit declines deepen
Industrial enterprise profits rose 14.4% year on year in September, up from 4.2% in August. JPMorgan believes AI demand and upstream prices supported profits, but continued weakness in automotive and consumption-related manufacturing prolonged the divergence.
J.P. Morgan ·
Super El Niño expectations intensify: Emerging markets face twin shocks to food inflation and rural demand
JPMorgan believes that continually upward revisions to weather intensity forecasts, lower agricultural output, energy prices and narrowing policy space could together amplify risks in emerging markets; the impact on equities varies by sector and company.
J.P. Morgan ·
Morgan Stanley: China’s exports benefit from an industrial supercycle, but deleveraging constrains domestic demand recovery
Morgan Stanley expects China’s export share to keep rising and Industry 5.0 to create long-term investment opportunities. But weaker employment transmission, household deleveraging and excess capacity make it difficult for strong exports to translate quickly into broad-based reflation.
Morgan Stanley ·
Morgan Stanley: Asian growth retains buffers amid three pressures from AI investment, high interest rates and oil prices
Asia’s investment cycle does not rely solely on AI, and exports and balance sheets also provide a buffer against high interest rates. But if oil prices remain above 120 dollars per barrel, central banks raise rates more than expected and AI investment declines, pressure on growth will increase markedly.
Morgan Stanley ·
Nomura model forecasts a 460-point cut in the USD/CNY central parity rate; counter-cyclical factor narrows the decline
Nomura’s model forecast for the central parity rate on 28 October was 6.6711, 460 points below the previous fixing; with the counter-cyclical factor included, the forecast rises to 6.6923.
Nomura ·
Goldman Sachs Macro Weekly: Rate Hikes Still Possible After Central Bank Pause, With Elections and AI Investment Adding New Variables
The Federal Reserve held rates steady while the Bank of Canada raised them. Goldman Sachs expects the next rate hikes in both the US and Europe in December, while also monitoring the US midterm elections and returns on AI investment.
Goldman Sachs ·
Former Labor Department chief economist Stevenson: The Fed is waiting for the economy to slow; keeping rates unchanged is puzzling
Betsey Stevenson, a University of Michigan professor and former chief economist at the Labor Department, asks why, if markets broadly expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates eventually, it does not do so now. The question of what benefit there is in waiting has not been well answered.
Bloomberg Television ·
“Bond King” Gundlach: The Fed should have raised rates, judging by the two-year yield and the steepening yield curve
DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach spoke to CNBC on the night of the Fed’s rate decision: The press conference language was vague, but the bond market’s signal was clear—judging by two-year Treasuries and the steepening yield curve, the Fed should have raised rates.
CNBC Television ·
Fed Chair Warsh: Rates held steady, inflation remains high, and only seven rate decisions a year starting in 2027
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said at his post-meeting press conference that the committee held interest rates steady at 3.75% to 4%. The economy is expanding strongly, but inflation remains high. The committee “will achieve price stability,” he said, and announced a change to the meeting schedule starting in 2027.
CNBC Television ·
US housing executive order could reduce loan costs, but Goldman Sachs expects limited impact on mortgage rates and MBS prepayments
A title insurance waiver could save eligible refinancing borrowers 500 to 1500 dollars, but its coverage may be limited; other measures also largely involve existing arrangements or constraints on implementation timing.
Goldman Sachs ·
US consumer confidence rebounds sharply, new-home sales fall less than expected
The October consumer confidence index rose to 91.7, far exceeding forecasts; new-home sales edged down in September but beat Goldman Sachs and market expectations.
Goldman Sachs ·
Behind the acceleration in China's industrial profit growth: profits flat month on month in September, revenue edges down
Goldman Sachs believes the rise in year-on-year industrial profit growth to 14.1% in September was mainly due to base effects. On a seasonally adjusted basis, profits were flat month on month and revenue fell 0.1%. The bank expects both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs to decline in October.
Goldman Sachs ·
Goldman Sachs: China's high-tech industries support growth but provide a weaker boost to employment and income
Goldman Sachs expects high-tech industries to contribute about 2 percentage points a year to China's real GDP growth in 2026–2030, but the same amount of spending generates less employment and labor income than in real estate and services.
Goldman Sachs ·
Goldman Sachs US economic indicators: Financial conditions tighten slightly, activity indicator rises to 3.5%
Goldman Sachs’ current activity indicator as of October rose by 0.1 percentage points from September, and its third-quarter GDP forecast calls for annualized quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.3%; meanwhile, the economic surprise index fell and financial conditions tightened slightly.
Goldman Sachs ·