How does the base model forecast the central parity rate will change?

  • Nomura’s base model forecasts the USD/CNY central parity rate for 3 November 2026 at 6.6502, 644 points below the previous fixing of 6.7146. A decline in the USD/CNY quote means that the same amount of US dollars corresponds to fewer renminbi.
  • The forecast is 44 points above the previous trading day’s official spot close. The two benchmarks point in different directions: the model forecast is below the previous fixing but slightly above the previous spot close.

What changes when the countercyclical factor is included?

  • With the countercyclical factor included, Nomura’s forecast is 6.6819, 327 points below the previous fixing and 317 points above the base model forecast.
  • Both results point to a lower central parity rate than the previous fixing, but the decline in the adjusted forecast is about half that in the base model. The report also presents historical daily errors for the model without the countercyclical factor, showing that model values differ from actual central parity rates.

Which overnight currency moves did the base model track?

  • In Nomura’s model without the countercyclical factor, the four currencies with the largest overnight weighted contributions were the South Korean won, euro, Australian dollar and Mexican peso. Their overnight movements were included in the estimate of the change in the central parity rate.
  • The report also lists upcoming policy events, including the People’s Bank of China’s third-quarter monetary policy report, expected in mid-November 2026, and the PBOC Monetary Policy Committee meeting in late December.