Goldman Sachs: Global central bank decisions come thick and fast as Goldman Sachs expects US nonfarm payroll growth to rebound

Which central banks are expected to raise rates, and which to hold steady?

Goldman Sachs expects the UK, Australia, Sweden and the Czech Republic each to raise rates by 25 basis points, taking their policy rates to 4.0%, 4.85%, 2.0% and 4.0%, respectively; all four forecasts match market consensus.
Goldman Sachs expects Norway, Brazil, Poland, Mexico and Malaysia to hold rates unchanged at 4.5%, 13.75%, 3.75%, 6.5% and 2.75%, respectively, also in line with consensus.

Goldman Sachs expects US nonfarm payrolls for October, due on 6 November, to increase by 75 thousand, above the market consensus of 65 thousand and the previous reading of 29 thousand; private-sector payrolls are expected to increase by 70 thousand, compared with 46 thousand previously.
Payroll growth is expected to rebound, but Goldman Sachs’s forecast for the October unemployment rate remains 4.2%, unchanged from consensus and the previous reading; average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month on month, compared with 0.1% previously.

Goldman Sachs expects the preliminary eurozone core HICP for October to rise 2.55% year on year, slightly above the market consensus and previous reading of 2.5%.
The final eurozone manufacturing PMI for October is expected at 52.4 and the final services PMI at 51.7, both in line with consensus and their previously published readings.

The US nonfarm payroll forecast is 10 thousand above consensus, but Goldman Sachs notes that the other indicators this week do not meet its threshold for a significant deviation from consensus.
The threshold is measured using the standard deviation of historical data surprises: a forecast is classified as a significant deviation only when its gap from consensus reaches at least one standard deviation.