Bernstein: Russian refinery attacks may support refining margins through 2027

How much Russian refining capacity is affected?

Combining satellite imagery with news reports, Bernstein estimates that Russian refineries affected by recent fires account for approximately 1.5 million barrels per day of refining capacity, or about 2% of global refining capacity; refineries attacked since August 2026 have a combined capacity of approximately 5 million barrels per day, or about 5% of the global total.
The two figures correspond to recent fires and the cumulative scope of attacks since August, respectively, and measure the capacity of the refineries concerned. The body of the report describes the recent figure of approximately 1.5 million barrels per day as offline capacity, while a chart title puts offline capacity at approximately 2 million barrels per day.

The firm overlays real-time fire detection results on satellite imagery and combines them with news information, focusing on Russian- and Ukrainian-language sources; the observation window for these fires was the seven days through 2 November.
Fire detection is real-time, but the underlying imagery may not be current and may not show actual damage. The strength of fire evidence varies by refinery: Kstovo and Taneco, with capacities of 340 thousand and 200 thousand barrels per day respectively, have strong evidence of fire; Omsk, with 430 thousand barrels per day, and Kirishi, with 420 thousand barrels per day, do not have strong evidence of fire.

Bernstein believes that, even without considering disruption to the Strait of Hormuz for now, global refining supply disruptions could remain high as long as Russia and Ukraine do not reach some form of peace agreement or ceasefire, supporting the price spread between refined products and crude oil, known as the refining margin.
In the firm's assessment, sustained margins will benefit refiners and integrated oil companies through at least 2027. It rates ExxonMobil outperform and Chevron market perform.