Oil inventory draws lag seasonal average as crude falls but gasoline builds

Why are overall inventories drawing more slowly than in previous years?

Total oil inventories in the major regions tracked by Morgan Stanley fell by 4.6 million barrels last week, with crude down 6.7 million barrels and refined products up 2.1 million barrels. The crude draw came mainly from Japan and the US, while the refined-product build came mainly from Asia and the US.
On a daily basis, total inventories fell by 660 thousand barrels, less than the historical average draw of 1.74 million barrels per day for the same period. Crude drew faster than its seasonal average, but refined products shifted from a historical average draw of 990 thousand barrels per day to a build of 300 thousand barrels per day.
The statistics cover available weekly data for the US, the ARA region of northwest Europe, Japan, Singapore and Fujairah in the UAE. US inventories include the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Historical comparisons generally use a 10-year average; because of data availability, Fujairah and ARA crude use 6-year and 9-year averages, respectively.

Japan's crude inventories fell by 5.6 million barrels in the week. Combined US crude and refined-product inventories fell by 300 thousand barrels, and inventories in the ARA region fell by 700 thousand barrels. Meanwhile, refined-product inventories in Singapore and Fujairah rose by 400 thousand and 1.7 million barrels, respectively.
By product, gasoline inventories rose by 3.3 million barrels, driven mainly by the US; distillates fell by 2.4 million barrels, also driven mainly by the US; and fuel oil rose by 500 thousand barrels, mainly in Fujairah.
The gasoline build contrasted with the historical average draw for the same period: inventories rose by 470 thousand barrels per day last week, versus an average decline of 500 thousand barrels per day.

Combined US commercial crude inventories and strategic reserves fell by 2 million barrels to 693.2 million barrels, the lowest level in more than 40 years. Commercial stocks fell by 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million barrels, while strategic reserves fell by 100 thousand barrels to 282.6 million barrels.
As inventories fell, weekly crude production rose by 720 thousand barrels per day from the previous week to 14 million barrels per day, a weekly record. Exports rose by 1.4 million barrels per day to 4.9 million barrels per day, the highest in nearly 5 months, while imports also rose by 600 thousand barrels per day to 6.4 million barrels per day.
Refinery crude runs fell by 120 thousand barrels per day from the previous week, and the utilization rate fell by 0.6 percentage points to 92.8%. The report noted that a refinery with capacity of 80 thousand barrels per day entered planned maintenance.

US gasoline inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels from the previous week to 209.2 million barrels, their highest in more than two months. Based on changes in net exports and refinery output, Morgan Stanley concluded that gasoline demand weakened week over week, driving the inventory build.
Distillate inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels to 102.8 million barrels. Based on changes in output and net exports, the bank estimates that implied demand rose by 13% from the previous week, consistent with the ongoing US harvest season.
Despite their recovery, gasoline inventories remained 2% below the five-year average for the same period. The shortfall in distillate inventories was larger, at 10% below the seasonal average.