Show and guest
Bloomberg Television interviews HSBC Chief Multi-Asset Strategist Max Kettner. Original English headline: HSBC's Max Kettner: The AI Trade Hasn't Fundamentally Changed. The subtitles cover 0:00–7:17; this article covers the full short interview.
Key takeaways
- This looks like the blowup of inverse-volatility products in late January 2018; at the time, news that a hedge fund was closing part of its equities business triggered a chain of speculation. 0:22
- Funds are being forced to liquidate now; it is not just a single trading desk unwinding positions. 1:46
- Even rental yields for the oldest Nvidia B300 chips have accelerated over the past two months, while fundamentals have not changed. 2:09
- A month ago, the market narrative was about fiscal deficits and government debt; now the narrative is that “the AI cycle is dead.” 3:35
- Consumer staples have risen more than 20% over the past 5 weeks and trade at about 25 times earnings, while tech is at about 17 times; this makes no sense on fundamentals. 4:41
- The catalyst for a turning point is Anthropic’s IPO: a listing at a reasonable valuation would be enough; around 1 trillion dollars or even less would do, without requiring the 2 trillion-dollar hype. 4:51
Background and notes
This Bloomberg Television segment is a short interview with HSBC’s Kettner, covering the selloff and comparisons with 2018, shifts in the narrative, and Anthropic’s IPO. The subtitles cover 0:00–7:17; this article covers the full interview. The views and timestamps are paraphrased from the original subtitles, and each timestamp marks the start of the corresponding excerpt.