Goldman Sachs monitoring shows that emerging-market fund inflows are driven mainly by passive money. China shows signs of renewed buying by the “national team,” while foreign selling pressure in Taiwan persists; Indonesia’s removal from the MSCI Emerging Markets Index could trigger 5.6 billion dollars in passive outflows.
Wistron’s September revenue was 18% below Goldman Sachs’ forecast. Goldman cut its revenue estimates but raised its net profit estimates on lower assumed R&D expenses. The fourth-quarter ramp-up in AI racks remains the main growth driver, but the model shows gross margin and operating profit declining quarter over quarter, and the target price was trimmed to NT$291.
Foreign investors net sold 29.5 billion US dollars over 12 consecutive trading days, with retail investors and local funds taking the other side. Leveraged funding is increasing again, but margin maintenance ratios still provide a buffer. Earnings expectations continue to rise alongside slowing production and revenue growth.
Wages, consumption and corporate credit are strengthening together. Goldman Sachs has raised its growth forecasts for Taiwan for this year and next, and expects rate hikes of 12.5 basis points in each of three consecutive quarters. Capital outflows are weighing on the New Taiwan dollar in the short term, but the medium-term outlook remains positive.
TOPIX has fallen 5.2% from its 6 October high, with 21 stocks accounting for 99% of the decline. Goldman Sachs interprets this as risk-off selling in themes that had been strong during the year; valuations have fallen to their lowest since August 2025, but foreign selling and the approaching earnings season remain important context for assessing the scope for a recovery.
Goldman Sachs maintains its baseline view of a moderately weaker dollar, but a slowdown in AI investment and an energy shock would push the dollar in opposite directions. The yen is better suited to hedging a cooling growth outlook, while the renminbi is supported by the trade surplus and its undervaluation.
Energy inflation continues to constrain central banks, but AI-related safe-haven demand is again supporting bond markets. Goldman Sachs favors the middle of the US curve, eurozone flattening and UK gilts relative to swaps, while raising its forecasts for French and Italian sovereign spreads.
Third-quarter net profit was slightly below Goldman Sachs’ expectations, shifting attention to asset quality: accelerated disposal of retail risks, corporate risks and growth in non-credit assets are jointly consuming provisions. Net interest margin remained stable, but changes in the loan mix also increased capital usage.
In the week to 21 October, global equity funds recorded net inflows of approximately 56 billion dollars, down from 65 billion dollars the previous week; technology funds remained the leading sector for inflows.
Goldman Sachs remains positive on foundry demand driven by AI and domestic substitution, but has assumed a slower pace of price increases for advanced processes, cutting its net profit forecasts for 2028 and 2029 by 14% and 7%, respectively. Its price target is unchanged, while the valuation basis has been rolled forward by one year.
Goldman Sachs’ 23 October tracker shows that domestic flights, port throughput and existing-home transactions improved over the past week, while new-home transactions remained well below their year-earlier level and steel demand declined. Fiscal issuance progress and falling funding rates provide another line of observation.
Goldman Sachs expert interviews indicate that food and beverage discount retailers still have room for regional expansion and channel substitution, but the payback period for new stores has lengthened to about 3 years. Resilient profitability at mature stores and higher margins at larger stores support franchisees’ willingness to invest, alongside customer diversion and higher investment requirements.
Fiscal spending rebounded month on month in September, but remained nearly stagnant year on year, while the decline in property-related revenue widened. Goldman Sachs cut its forecast for the 2026 broad fiscal deficit as a share of GDP from 11.5% to 10.0%. It expects the fiscal drag to ease in the fourth quarter, while the full-year fiscal impulse remains weaker than in 2025.
Goldman Sachs sees room for investors to reduce their underweight positions in Indian equities, but a recovery in sentiment still depends on energy prices easing. Earnings reports have yet to drive broad earnings upgrades, while private AI companies could expand the universe of listed investments over the next 2–5 years.
Tesla has started Optimus production, but internal deployment and a gradual ramp-up still lie ahead before external sales. JPMorgan is more positive on component demand generated by research and development, pilots and data collection, while remaining cautious about sentiment-driven gains in robot manufacturers.
JPMorgan estimates that US crypto spot ETPs recorded combined net outflows of 738 million dollars on 22 October, mostly from Bitcoin products. Falling cryptocurrency prices coincided with increased redemptions, but net inflows for the week through that day remained at 216 million dollars; trading volumes in Bitcoin and Ether products were also below their respective daily averages since launch.
Third-quarter net profit attributable to shareholders rose 9% year on year, with resilient brokerage commission income delivering a modest earnings beat. But a larger-than-industry decline in margin financing balances, rising expenses and continued weakness in October market turnover led JPMorgan to maintain its Neutral rating.
JPMorgan expects Baidu's AI cloud infrastructure revenue to rise approximately 90% year over year, but declining advertising revenue, depreciation and training investment will weigh on profit. The bank lowered its price target and maintained its Overweight rating, shifting its focus to cash collection and capital efficiency in the cloud business.
Evercore ISI says delivery times lengthened across all regions and configurations on the first day of Duo preorders, signaling positive initial demand, although initial supply is also affecting delivery schedules. Meanwhile, the Pro series is working through launch orders, with delivery times broadly unchanged or shorter.
Super Micro Computer’s first-quarter revenue outlook for fiscal 2027 far exceeds its original guidance. Bank of America raised its full-year revenue forecast to 79.6 billion dollars and its price target to 38 dollars. However, a sequential decline in gross margin and continued cash tied up in working capital have led it to maintain its Underperform rating.
