Citi’s tracking data show that in the week ended 22 October, apparent steel consumption exceeded production and inventories continued to decline. Cumulative consumption nevertheless remained lower year on year, while hot-rolled and cold-rolled inventories were also above year-earlier levels, indicating uneven improvement across products.
At the 100 sampled mines tracked by Citi, output and inventories both increased 2% week on week over October 15–21. Supply recovered from the previous week, but output was still down 4.6% year on year when aligned by the lunar calendar. By region, Shaanxi increased output, while Shanxi remained below last year’s level.
Citi sees room for an upward revision to SCC’s full-year earnings expectations: an improved AI PCB product mix and a recovery in BT substrates are driving faster profit growth. But receivables and inventory tie up cash, expansion relies mainly on new borrowing, and the fourth quarter also faces rising raw material prices and expenses.
Citi expects both companies’ third-quarter production to be broadly flat, shifting attention to full-year guidance and cash returns. AngloGold is weighed down by gold prices and mine disruptions, but free cash flow is expected to improve quarter on quarter; Gold Fields’ production is in line with guidance, while rising costs and a Ghanaian lease are constraints.
Revenue for the September quarter rose 55% year over year. Shipped capacity was slightly below market expectations, but prices rose approximately 27% year over year, and gross margin reached 58.1%. Revenue and earnings guidance for the December quarter remained above consensus. Citi is optimistic that hard drive supply and demand will support pricing, while watching whether the company can sustain its advantages in demand, costs and technology strategy.
Citi expects BJ’s third-quarter same-store sales to grow 5%, close to the market consensus, and expects full-year guidance to remain intact. However, transaction growth is slowing and earnings forecasts have been trimmed; after the stock’s approximately 40% gain this year, further revaluation requires new-store expansion alongside improvements in traffic and margins.
Citi’s tracking shows that China, Taiwan and South Korea ETFs together attracted 30 billion US dollars in a single week, while foreign investors were net sellers in Taiwan and South Korea over the same period. Fund subscriptions and foreign trading diverged, and global inflows also showed a clear preference for ETFs.
